@article{fdi:010094885,
  title = {{A}edes albopictus is rapidly invading its climatic niche in {F}rance : wider implications for biting nuisance and arbovirus control in {W}estern {E}urope},
  author = {{R}adici, {A}. and {H}ammami, {P}. and {C}annet, {A}. and {L}'{A}mbert, {G}. and {L}acour, {G}. and {F}ournet, {F}lorence and {G}arros, {C}. and {G}uis, {H}. and {F}ontenille, {D}idier and {C}aminade, {C}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he {A}sian tiger mosquito, {A}edes albopictus, is a competent vector of arboviruses, such as dengue. {A}fter its introduction into southern {E}urope, this invasive species has been rapidly spreading as well as causing autochthonous cases of arboviral diseases. {B}oth {A}e. albopictus presence and potential to transmit arboviruses are facilitated at warm temperatures; hence, global warming is expected to affect their presence in temperate regions. {W}e use a climate- and environmental-driven mechanistic modeling framework to investigate the impact of recent climate change on {A}e. albopictus range expansion and its potential to transmit dengue in {W}estern {E}urope. {W}e simulate climatic suitability, adult density, and dengue transmission risk, which we compare with a large ensemble of entomological and epidemiological observations over the past 20 years. {M}ost importantly, we analyze a novel spatiotemporal dataset of colonized municipalities in metropolitan {F}rance to estimate the spread rate of {A}e. albopictus and compare it with model predictions. {L}astly, we analyze the sensitivity of entomological and epidemiological risk to changes in temperature, rainfall, and human density. {D}istribution of simulated mosquito populations and dengue transmission risk satisfactorily match entomological and dengue observations for {W}estern {E}urope ({AUC} = 0.90 and 0.75 respectively). {W}hile lowlands in southern {E}urope were already climatically suitable for hosting {A}e. albopictus around 2010, {W}estern {F}rance, together with large populated cities, such as {L}ondon, {Z}agreb, and {V}ienna, has become suitable recently. {I}mportantly, the accelerating colonization of {A}e. albopictus in {F}rance may be approaching the limit of its theoretical climatic niche; future expansion will depend on the climate-driven enlargement of suitable areas. {T}he area at risk of dengue transmission has recently expanded from the {M}editerranean coasts over northern {S}pain and {W}estern {F}rance. {T}he sensitivity analysis suggests that climate change may expose medium-sized cities to the highest epidemiological risk; this finding is consistent with recently reported dengue outbreaks in {E}urope.},
  keywords = {{A}edes albopictus ; arbovirus ; climate change ; dengue ; dynamic mechanistic ; model ; suitability model ; {W}estern {E}urope ; {FRANCE} ; {EUROPE} {DE} {L}'{OUEST} ; {ZONE} {MEDITERRANEENNE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{G}lobal {C}hange {B}iology},
  volume = {31},
  numero = {8},
  pages = {e70414 [15 p.]},
  ISSN = {1354-1013},
  year = {2025},
  DOI = {10.1111/gcb.70414},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010094885},
}