@article{fdi:010094820,
  title = {{D}rivers of {CMIP} {T}ropical {P}acific warming pattern diversity},
  author = {{D}anielli, {V}incent and {L}engaigne, {M}atthieu and {S}adhvi, {K}. and {G}opika, {S}. and {V}ialard, {J}{\'e}r{\^o}me},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{A}nthropogenic changes in sea surface temperature relative to the tropical mean (relative {SST}) play a pivotal role in influencing atmospheric stability and circulation. {I}n the tropical {P}acific, {CMIP}5/6 multi-model mean ({MMM}) projections by the end of the 21st century show a southeastern relative cooling and a reduced equatorial {SST} gradient, although individual models exhibit considerable diversity. {U}sing a simplified heat budget framework, we analyze the processes driving these relative {SST} changes across 63 {CMIP}5/6 models under historical and most pessimistic future scenarios. {I}n the southeastern tropical {P}acific, {MMM} relative {SST} cooling is driven by intensified winds that enhance latent heat flux, with inter-model diversity explained by variations in clouds and winds. {C}onversely, the {MMM} equatorial {SST} gradient reduction arises from reduced evaporative cooling efficiency in the climatologically cold eastern {P}acific. {A} heat budget covariance analysis reveals that inter-model diversity in equatorial {P}acific warming is predominantly driven by ocean dynamical processes, challenging previous studies that emphasized cloud feedback mechanisms. {C}louds instead mitigate inter-model spread. {T}he inter-model spread in ocean dynamics is linked to two factors: trade wind relaxation and the cold tongue bias. {S}tronger trade wind relaxation amplifies western {P}acific warming, while a weaker cold tongue indicates a less effective ocean thermostat, enhancing eastern {P}acific warming. {D}uring the present-day period, only a subset of models captures the observed equatorial {SST} gradient strengthening, but the mechanisms vary across these models, complicating the identification of robust drivers of this observed trend.},
  keywords = {climate change ; tropical {P}acific warming pattern ; {CMIP} models ; ocean dynamics ; evaporative feedback ; ocean-atmosphere coupling ; {PACIFIQUE} ; {ATLANTIQUE} ; {ZONE} {TROPICALE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{E}arths {F}uture},
  volume = {13},
  numero = {8},
  pages = {e2025{EF}005938 [20 p.]},
  year = {2025},
  DOI = {10.1029/2025ef005938},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010094820},
}