@article{fdi:010094706,
  title = {{C}onditional probability of surface rupture : a numerical approach for principal faulting [{C}orrection, 1 p.]},
  author = {{M}ammarella, {L}. and {V}isini, {F}. and {B}oncio, {P}. and {B}aize, {S}. and {S}cotti, {O}. and {B}eauval, {C}{\'e}line and {P}ace, {B}. and {T}hompson, {S}. and {EERI}, {M}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}his study presents a numerical approach for probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis ({PFDHA}), aimed at addressing an alternative solution to commonly used empirical methodologies. {O}ur model utilizes probability distributions to compute the conditional probability of surface rupture ({CPSR}). {L}everaging earthquake catalogs, we derived the hypocentral depth distribution ({HDD}) across eight globally distributed seismotectonic regions categorized by faulting kinematics (normal, reverse, strike-slip). {W}e calculated the hypocentral depth ratio ({HDR}) distribution, to model rupture position from the hypocenter. {R}upture widths are estimated as a function of magnitude based on previously published scaling relations. {U}ser-input parameters, including fault style, average dip angle, and seismogenic depth, with associated uncertainties, derive the {CPSR} estimation of surface rupture occurrences. {O}ur findings highlight seismogenic depth as the most influential parameter and reveal correspondences between empirical curves derived for specific regions. {T}hese findings support the use of source-specific surface rupture probability assessments over approaches based on global datasets, and underscore the importance of considering the local seismotectonic setting when evaluating fault displacement hazard. {T}he numerical code for {CPSR} calculation has been developed and is openly accessible on {G}it{H}ub.},
  keywords = {{ITALIE} ; {ETATS} {UNIS} ; {JAPON} ; {TAIWAN} ; {NOUVELLE} {ZELANDE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{E}arthquake {S}pectra},
  volume = {[{E}arly access]},
  numero = {},
  pages = {en ligne [26 ] + [{C}orrection, 2025, 1 p.]},
  ISSN = {1944-8201},
  year = {2024},
  DOI = {10.1177/87552930241293570},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010094706},
}