@article{fdi:010094508,
  title = {{S}oil organic carbon models need independent time-series validation for reliable prediction},
  author = {{L}e {N}o{\¨e}, {J}ulia and {M}anzoni, {S}. and {A}bramoff, {R}. and {B}{\¨o}lscher, {T}. and {B}runi, {E}. and {C}ardinael, {R}. and {C}iais, {P}. and {C}henu, {C}. and {C}livot, {H}. and {D}errien, {D}. and {F}erchaud, {F}. and {G}arnier, {P}. and {G}oll, {D}. and {L}ashermes, {G}. and {M}artin, {M}. and {R}asse, {D}. and {R}ees, {F}. and {S}ainte-{M}arie, {J}. and {S}almon, {E}. and {S}chiedung, {M}. and {S}chimel, {J}. and {W}ieder, {W}. and {A}biven, {S}. and {B}arr{\'e}, {P}. and {C}{\'e}cillon, {L}. and {G}uenet, {B}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{N}umerical models are crucial to understand and/or predict past and future soil organic carbon dynamics. {F}or those models aiming at prediction, validation is a critical step to gain confidence in projections. {W}ith a comprehensive review of ~250 models, we assess how models are validated depending on their objectives and features, discuss how validation of predictive models can be improved. {W}e find a critical lack of independent validation using observed time series. {C}onducting such validations should be a priority to improve the model reliability. {A}pproximately 60% of the models we analysed are not designed for predictions, but rather for conceptual understanding of soil processes. {T}hese models provide important insights by identifying key processes and alternative formalisms that can be relevant for predictive models. {W}e argue that combining independent validation based on observed time series and improved information flow between predictive and conceptual models will increase reliability in predictions.},
  keywords = {},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{C}ommunications {E}arth and {E}nvironment},
  volume = {4},
  numero = {1},
  pages = {158 [8 ]},
  ISSN = {2662-4435},
  year = {2023},
  DOI = {10.1038/s43247-023-00830-5},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010094508},
}