Poncet N. auteur aut IRD Tramblay Yves auteur aut IRD Lucas-Picher P. auteur aut IRD Thirel G. auteur aut IRD Caillaud C. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf born digital access Floods have major impacts on the Mediterranean region, but little is currently known about their potential evolution in the context of climate change. This is due in particular to the limited ability of climate models to reproduce extreme meteorological events such as heavy rains that lead to flash floods, especially at the local scale over smaller basins. This study is the first to explore future flood scenarios over 12 Mediterranean basins using an ensemble of 12 high-resolution convection-permitting climate models and the GR5H hourly rainfall-runoff model. The results indicate an overall increase in flood intensity across all basins, particularly for the most severe events, but also a strong spatial variability in the change signal depending on the geographic location. There is good agreement among the convection-permitting climate models on an increase in hourly and daily rainfall extremes in the Mediterranean, but these changes are not strongly correlated with changes in flood-peak intensity, indicating that change in rainfall intensity alone is a poor predictor of future flood hazards. At present, this type of analysis is hampered by the short duration of the available high-resolution climate simulations. Longer timeseries would be required to better assess the robustness of the projected changes against climate variability. specialized Climate change Floods The Mediterranean Convection-permitting model Ensemble Projection FRANCE ZONE MEDITERRANEENNE 062 021 020 178 8 141 [26 p.] 2025 0165-0009 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010094358 10.1007/s10584-025-03983-8 0165-0009 [F B010094358] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010094358 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2025-08/010094358.pdf Accès réservé (Intranet de l'IRD) IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2025-08-27 2025-11-04 fdi:010094358 fre