@article{fdi:010094358,
  title = {{P}rojections of extreme rainfall and floods in {M}editerranean basins from an ensemble of convection-permitting models},
  author = {{P}oncet, {N}. and {T}ramblay, {Y}ves and {L}ucas-{P}icher, {P}. and {T}hirel, {G}. and {C}aillaud, {C}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{F}loods have major impacts on the {M}editerranean region, but little is currently known about their potential evolution in the context of climate change. {T}his is due in particular to the limited ability of climate models to reproduce extreme meteorological events such as heavy rains that lead to flash floods, especially at the local scale over smaller basins. {T}his study is the first to explore future flood scenarios over 12 {M}editerranean basins using an ensemble of 12 high-resolution convection-permitting climate models and the {GR}5{H} hourly rainfall-runoff model. {T}he results indicate an overall increase in flood intensity across all basins, particularly for the most severe events, but also a strong spatial variability in the change signal depending on the geographic location. {T}here is good agreement among the convection-permitting climate models on an increase in hourly and daily rainfall extremes in the {M}editerranean, but these changes are not strongly correlated with changes in flood-peak intensity, indicating that change in rainfall intensity alone is a poor predictor of future flood hazards. {A}t present, this type of analysis is hampered by the short duration of the available high-resolution climate simulations. {L}onger timeseries would be required to better assess the robustness of the projected changes against climate variability.},
  keywords = {{C}limate change ; {F}loods ; {T}he {M}editerranean {C}onvection-permitting model ; {E}nsemble ; {P}rojection ; {FRANCE} ; {ZONE} {MEDITERRANEENNE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{C}limatic {C}hange},
  volume = {178},
  numero = {8},
  pages = {141 [26 p.]},
  ISSN = {0165-0009},
  year = {2025},
  DOI = {10.1007/s10584-025-03983-8},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010094358},
}