@article{fdi:010094164,
  title = {{H}ow could climate change affect the magnitude, duration and frequency of hydrological droughts and floods in {W}est {A}frica during the 21st century ? {A} storyline approach},
  author = {{E}kolu, {J}. and {D}ieppois, {B}. and {D}iop, {S}. {B}. and {B}odian, {A}. and {G}rimaldi, {S}. and {S}alamon, {P}. and {V}illarini, {G}. and {E}den, {J}. {M}. and {M}onerie, {P}. {A}. and van de {W}iel, {M}. and {T}ramblay, {Y}ves},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{I}n recent decades, {W}est {A}frica has been increasingly exposed to hydrological droughts and floods. {H}owever, the extent to which these changes are related to climate change and are likely to persist during the 21st century remains poorly understood. {T}o address this gap, this study integrates plausible regional climate change story-lines, derived from the 6th phase of the {C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}rojects ({CMIP}6), into physically based hydrological modelling experiments utilising the latest high-resolution setup of {O}pen {S}ource {LISFLOOD} ({OS}-{LISFLOOD}). {D}espite some limitations over the {S}ahelian region, {OS}-{LISFLOOD} shows good performances in representing the hydrological cycle and specific characteristics of hydrological droughts and floods. {W}hile {CMIP}6 models consistently project warming temperatures over {W}est {A}frica, greater zonal contrasts and model discrepancies are found in projected rainfall changes. {O}verall, {CMIP}6 models tend to project more (less) rainfall, as well as more (less) intense rainfall, over the eastern (western) region of {W}est {A}frica. {H}owever, wetter (drier) conditions are projected over larger regions in {CMIP}6 models simulating weaker (stronger) warming in the {N}orth {A}tlantic and {M}editerranean temperatures. {F}uture changes in hydrological droughts and floods mirror changes in precipitation. {I}n the 21st century, we find robust significant increases (decreases) in the magnitude (duration) of floods. {M}eanwhile, reduced (increased) intensity of shorter (longer) duration hydrological droughts are found in the eastern (western and coastal) regions of {W}est {A}frica. {O}ur study stresses the importance of considering future changes in hydrological droughts and floods for effective water resource management and risk reduction across this highly vulnerable region.},
  keywords = {{C}limate change storylines ; {F}loods ; {H}ydrological droughts ; {H}ydrological modelling ; {W}est {A}frica ; {AFRIQUE} {SUBSAHARIENNE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{J}ournal of {H}ydrology},
  volume = {660},
  numero = {{B}},
  pages = {133482 [18 p.]},
  ISSN = {0022-1694},
  year = {2025},
  DOI = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133482},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010094164},
}