@article{fdi:010093533, title = {{E}ffects of regional oceanography and climate variability on larval connectivity of the wedge clam {D}onax hanleyanus in {S}outh {A}merican beaches}, author = {{M}eerhoff, {E}. and {C}ombes, {V}. and {M}atano, {R}. and {B}arrier, {N}icolas and {F}ranco, {B}. {C}. and {P}iola, {A}. {R}. and {H}ernández-{V}aca, {F}. and {D}efeo, {O}.}, editor = {}, language = {{ENG}}, abstract = {{T}he wedge clam, {D}onax hanleyanus, inhabits sandy beaches in the subtropical and temperate regions of the {A}tlantic coast of {S}outh {A}merica. {I}ts distribution spans over 20 degrees of latitude from {B}razil to {A}rgentina, with the southernmost part of its range being influenced by the {R}io de la {P}lata ({R}dl{P}) estuary, which limits the southward larval expansion. {W}e used an individual-based model ({IBM}) to assess the larval connectivity patterns of the wedge clam during the period 2000-2012. {T}he {IBM} combines a 3{D} hydrodynamic model with a biological sub-model that considers larval mortality due to low salinity (<7, and <9) and sea surface temperature range (high >30 degrees {C} or low <9 degrees {C}). {T}he main larval connectivity patterns were observed near the release/recruitment areas, suggesting a high potential for self-recruitment. {B}ased on the {IBM} and adult abundance data, we also identified the likely source and sink areas within this metapopulation. {S}ource beach areas were {N}avegantes and {C}assino in {B}razil (from 26.3 degrees {S} to 34.34 degrees {S}), {A}rachania in {U}ruguay (34.56 degrees {S}), and {S}anta {T}eresita in {A}rgentina (37.15 degrees {S}). {A} low probability of larval transport towards the poleward limit of the species' distribution was observed, supporting an irregular recruitment pattern typical of sink populations located at the edge of the distribution range of metapopulations. {L}arval mortality due to warm or cold waters did not affect connectivity patterns for this subtropical species. {S}outhward larval transport across the {R}dl{P} estuary (from {U}ruguayan to {A}rgentine beaches) only occurred for larvae released on early {J}anuary 2011, concurrently with the strongest {L}a {N}i & ntilde;a year observed during the study period. {I}n light of a changing climate, marked by potential increases in extreme {L}a {N}iña events and a poleward shift of atmospheric circulation patterns over the {S}outh {A}tlantic, we anticipate a strengthening of larval transport across the {R}dl{P} and a subsequent poleward expansion of the species' distribution range.}, keywords = {{M}olluscan larvae ; {L}arval connectivity ; {B}io-physical model ; {M}ortality ; {S}outhwestern {S}outh {A}tlantic ; {ATLANTIQUE} {SUD} ; {BRESIL} ; {URUGUAY} ; {ARGENTINE}}, booktitle = {}, journal = {{E}stuarine {C}oastal and {S}helf {S}cience}, volume = {321}, numero = {}, pages = {109346 [12 p.]}, ISSN = {0272-7714}, year = {2025}, DOI = {10.1016/j.ecss.2025.109346}, URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010093533}, }