@article{fdi:010093444,
  title = {{D}rivers of future {I}ndian {O}cean warming and its spatial pattern in {CMIP} {M}odels},
  author = {{G}opika, {S}. and {S}adhvi, {K}. and {V}ialard, {J}{\'e}r{\^o}me and {D}anielli, {V}incent and {N}eetu, {S}. and {L}engaigne, {M}atthieu},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject phases 5 and 6 ({CMIP}5/6) projections display substantial inter-model diversity in the future tropical {I}ndian {O}cean warming magnitude and spatial pattern. {H}ere, we investigate the underlying physical mechanisms in 46 {CMIP}5/6 models using an upper-ocean heat budget framework that separates surface net air-sea flux changes into forcing and feedback components. {T}he multi-model mean ({MMM}) basin-averaged warming is primarily driven by reduced evaporative cooling due to weaker surface winds related to reduction of both summer and winter monsoonal circulations and increased near-surface relative humidity, with inter-model variations in these parameters controlling warming diversity. {T}he {MMM} warming pattern features a weakening equatorial gradient, resembling a positive {I}ndian {O}cean {D}ipole phase, and a strengthening interhemispheric gradient, both of which also dominate inter-model spread. {O}cean dynamics modulate the amplitude of the {MMM} {IOD}-like pattern and its inter-model variability through the {B}jerknes feedback, which couples the zonal equatorial {SST} gradient, equatorial winds, and thermocline slope. {I}nteractions with the tropical {P}acific may further contribute to this response. {M}eanwhile, stronger climatological winds enhance evaporative cooling in the {S}outhern {H}emisphere, reducing warming there, and strengthening the {MMM} interhemispheric {SST} gradient. {T}he diversity in this interhemispheric gradient is linked to variations in cross-equatorial wind changes and their impact on latent heat flux forcing. {T}his interhemispheric gradient strengthening is part of a broader pan-tropical pattern, with similar features in the {P}acific and {A}tlantic {O}ceans. {T}hese findings clarify the relative roles of thermodynamic processes and ocean dynamics in shaping future tropical {I}ndian {O}cean warming.},
  keywords = {{I}ndian {O}cean ; {CMIP} ; {IOD} like warming pattern ; {I}ndian {O}cean basin average ; warming ; air-sea interaction ; interhemispheric gradient ; {OCEAN} {INDIEN}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{E}arths {F}uture},
  volume = {13},
  numero = {4},
  pages = {e2025{EF}006112 [22 p.]},
  year = {2025},
  DOI = {10.1029/2025ef006112},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010093444},
}