@article{fdi:010093397,
  title = {{G}lobal sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of an ecosystem model for simulating food web dynamics in the {C}ooperation {S}ea, {S}outhern {O}cean},
  author = {{X}ing, {L}. and {G}rüss, {A}. and {B}arrier, {N}icolas and {H}e, {J}. {F}. and {T}ang, {J}. {Y}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}here is growing interest in developing and using ecosystem simulation models to advise fisheries management in the {S}outhern {O}cean. {H}owever, poor understanding of the impacts of uncertainty in ecosystem model parameters slows down progress towards operational ecosystem models. {T}o address this issue, we explored uncertainty in the parameters estimated during the calibration of an {OSMOSE} ecosystem model for the {C}ooperation {S}ea ("{OSMOSE}-{C}ooperation{S}ea") and the impacts of this uncertainty. {O}ur investigations pertained to four types of calibrated parameters: (1) {P}lank.access, the proportion of the biomass of background species groups available to focal species groups; (2) {B}ioflux, the parameter controlling the flux of migratory species group biomasses across the modelled domain boundaries; (3) {M}larval, the instantaneous larval mortality of the focal species groups; and (4) {M}natural, the additional natural mortality of the focal species groups. {R}esults with the {M}orris method suggested that the community in the {C}ooperation {S}ea was most sensitive to changes in the {M}larval parameter of mesopelagic fishes. {T}he biomasses of large-size, long-lived species such as toothfishes, {A}de<acute accent>lie penguin ({P}ygoscelis adeliae), seals, and whales were most sensitive to the parameters specific to these species groups. {B}y contrast, the biomasses of small-sized, short-lived species such as mesopelagic fishes and krill species were most sensitive to changes in the parameters specific to the predators of these species groups. {M}onte {C}arlo simulations indicated that community dynamics were more sensitive to the {M}larvaland {M}natural parameters than to the {P}lank.access and {B}ioflux parameters. {A}fter gradually increasing the {M}larvalor {M}natural parameter, the biomasses of {A}de<acute accent>lie penguin, seals and whales decreased, while the biomasses of mesopelagic fishes and {A}ntarctic krill increased. {B}y providing a comprehensive analysis of uncertainty in the parameters estimated during the calibration process, the present study represents an important step towards an operational ecosystem model for supporting ecosystem-based management in the {C}ooperation {S}ea. {T}he present study will serve as a valuable basis for similar ecosystem modelling efforts in the {S}outhern {O}cean.},
  keywords = {{U}ncertainty analyses ; {M}orris method ; {M}onte {C}arlo simulations ; {OSMOSE} ; {C}ooperation {S}ea ; {ANTARCTIQUE} ; {OCEAN} {AUSTRAL}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{F}isheries {R}esearch},
  volume = {285},
  numero = {},
  pages = {107345 [12 p.]},
  ISSN = {0165-7836},
  year = {2025},
  DOI = {10.1016/j.fishres.2025.107345},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010093397},
}