@article{fdi:010093380,
  title = {{F}uture glacio-hydrological changes in the {A}ndes : a focus on near-future projections up to 2050},
  author = {{C}aro, {A}. and {C}ondom, {T}homas and {R}abatel, {A}. and {A}guayo, {R}. and {C}hampollion, {N}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{A}ssessing future water contributions from glaciers is crucial for managing water resources, preventing disasters, and protecting ecosystems and communities. {H}owever, {A}ndean glacier runoff remains poorly understood because of missing regional and local research studies. {W}e evaluated eight {CMIP}6 models (1990-2049), projected future changes in glacier runoff (2030-2049) and peak water throughout the 21st century in 778 {A}ndean catchments (11 degrees {N}-55 degrees {S}), using the {O}pen {G}lobal {G}lacier {M}odel ({OGGM}) under two extreme climate change scenarios ({SSP}1-2.6 and 8.5). {P}rojections for the mid-21st century show warming trends across the {A}ndes, particularly in the {T}ropical {A}ndes (+ 0.7 degrees {C}), while precipitation declines slightly in the {S}outhern {A}ndes (-1 to -3%). {T}hese changes significantly impact glacier runoff, with substantial decreases projected for the {T}ropical {A}ndes (-43%) and {D}ry {A}ndes (-37%) by 2030-2049. {N}otably, changes in glacier runoff vary greatly across the {D}ry {A}ndes, as evidenced by the simulations for the {A}tuel (-62%) and {T}upungato (+ 32%) catchments in {A}rgentina. {M}ore than 95% of {A}ndean catchments are expected to reach peak water before 2030 (75th percentile), with significant regional differences. {O}ur study highlights the critical need to examine regional disparities in glacier runoff at the catchment scale, particularly in the {D}ry {A}ndes of {C}hile and {A}rgentina. {I}t calls on these governments to actively fund hydrological research in this region, which is essential for effectively managing current and future water resources.},
  keywords = {{CHILI} ; {ARGENTINE} ; {PEROU} ; {BOLIVIE} ; {COLOMBIE} ; {EQUATEUR} ; {ANDES}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{S}cientific {R}eports - {N}ature},
  volume = {15},
  numero = {1},
  pages = {10991 [13 p.]},
  ISSN = {2045-2322},
  year = {2025},
  DOI = {10.1038/s41598-025-88069-2},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010093380},
}