@article{fdi:010093346,
  title = {{P}articipatory downscaling of global {SSP}-{RCP} scenarios to local fisheries social-ecological systems},
  author = {{C}hevallier, {A}. and {B}anton, {E}. and {M}oullec, {F}. and {M}orell, {A}laia and {A}bello, {C}. and {P}ita-{V}aca, {I}. and {P}eck, {M}. {A}. and {E}rnande, {B}. and {S}hin, {Y}unne-{J}ai},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{P}olicymakers and managers need projections of the trajectories of change in human societies and natural ecosystems to plan actions to address the potential consequences of global change. {T}here are many projections at the global scale, but these need to be downscaled to local marine social-ecological systems to plan targeted interventions. {W}e aimed to provide policy-relevant projections of the consequences of climate change and socio-economic orientations for the fisheries of the {F}rench {N}orth {S}ea and the {M}editerranean. {O}ur approach consisted of a downscaling of global scenarios of {IPCC} {S}hared {S}ocioeconomic {P}athways ({SSP}s) and {R}epresentative {C}oncentration {P}athways ({RCP}s) for the 2100 horizon. {W}e engaged with fisheries managers, policymakers, scientific experts, and {NGO}s, and co-constructed four contrasting scenarios through interdisciplinary participatory workshops. {O}ur approach ensured strong anchoring in regional, national, and local contexts and provided references to fisheries scenarios. {W}e then conducted a novel comparative analysis of {SSP}-{RCP} scenario narratives from different local marine social-ecological systems in the same country. {A}cross all scenarios, 83% of the themes highlighted by the stakeholders were common between the two social-ecological systems. {H}owever, within the themes, at a more detailed level, only 30% of the narrative elements were mentioned in both systems, reflecting the specificity and richness of these downscaled scenarios and their relevance to local management. {W}e also integrated disruptive changes and emotional aspects by conducting a novel standardized emotion analysis using an artificial intelligence language model. {O}verall, these downscaled scenarios identified pathways to be avoided, as well as potential actions for transformative change, mitigation, and adaptation to global change at the local scale. {O}ur protocol allowed us to address some criticisms of {SSP}-{RCP} scenarios by helping to bridge science-policy gaps and to focus more on human-nature relationships.},
  keywords = {{G}lobal change ; {S}cenario downscaling ; {F}isheries ; {I}nterdisciplinary research ; {P}articipatory research ; {S}takeholder engagement ; {FRANCE} ; {MEDITERRANEE} ; {ATLANTIQUE} ; {LION} {GOLFE} ; {MER} {DU} {NORD}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{S}ustainability {S}cience},
  volume = {[{E}arly access]},
  numero = {},
  pages = {[20 p.]},
  ISSN = {1862-4065},
  year = {2025},
  DOI = {10.1007/s11625-025-01657-z},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010093346},
}