@article{fdi:010093214,
  title = {{A} {B}ayesian analysis of birth pulse effects on the probability of detecting {E}bola virus in fruit bats},
  author = {{P}leydell, {D}. {R}. {J}. and {B}ass, {I}. {N}. and {D}jondzo, {F}. {A}. {M}. and {D}jomsi, {D}. {M}. and {K}ouanfack, {C}. and {P}eeters, {M}artine and {C}appelle, {J}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{S}ince 1976 various species of {E}bolavirus have caused a series of zoonotic outbreaks and public health crises in {A}frica. {B}ats have long been hypothesised to function as important hosts for ebolavirus maintenance, however the transmission ecology for these viruses remains poorly understood. {S}everal studies have demonstrated rapid seroconversion for ebolavirus antibodies in young bats, yet paradoxically few {PCR} studies have confirmed the identity of the circulating viral species causing these seroconversions. {T}he current study presents an age-structured epidemiological model that characterises the effects of seasonal birth pulses on ebolavirus transmission within a colony of {A}frican straw-coloured fruit bats ( {E}idolon helvum). {B}ayesian calibration is performed using previously published serological data collected from {C}ameroon, and age-structure data from {G}hana. {T}he model predicts that annual birth pulses most likely give rise to annual outbreaks, although more complex dynamic patterns - including skip years, multi-annual cycles and chaos - may be possible. {W}eeks 30 to 31 of each year were estimated to be the most likely period for isolating the circulating virus in {C}ameroon. {T}he probability that a previous {PCR} campaign failed to detect {E}bola virus, assuming that it was circulating, was estimated to be one in two thousand. {T}his raises questions such as (1) what can we actually learn from ebolavirus serology tests performed without positive controls? (2) are current {PCR} tests sufficiently sensitive? (3) are swab samples really appropriate for ebolavirus detection? {T}he current results provide important insights for the design of future field studies aiming to detect {E}bola viruses from sylvatic hosts, and can contribute to risk assessments concerning the timing of zoonotic outbreaks.},
  keywords = {},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{P}eer {C}ommunity {J}ournal},
  volume = {4},
  numero = {},
  pages = {e39 [27 ]},
  ISSN = {2804-3871},
  year = {2024},
  DOI = {10.24072/pcjournal.380},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010093214},
}