@article{fdi:010092874,
  title = {{G}lobal and regional marine ecosystem models reveal key uncertainties in climate change projections},
  author = {{E}ddy, {T}. {D}. and {H}eneghan, {R}. {F}. and {B}ryndum-{B}uchholz, {A}. and {F}ulton, {E}. {A}. and {H}arrison, {C}. {S}. and {T}ittensor, {D}. {P}. and {L}otze, {H}. {K}. and {O}rtega-{C}isneros, {K}. and {N}ovaglio, {C}. and {B}ianchi, {D}. and {B}üchner, {M}. and {B}ulman, {C}. and {C}heung, {W}. {W}. {L}. and {C}hristensen, {V}. and {C}oll, {M}arta and {E}verett, {J}. {D}. and {F}ierro-{A}rcos, {D}. and {G}albraith, {E}. {D}. and {G}ascuel, {D}. and {G}uiet, {J}. and {M}ackinson, {S}. and {M}aury, {O}livier and {N}iiranen, {S}. and {O}liveros-{R}amos, {R}. and {P}alacios-{A}brantes, {J}. and {P}iroddi, {C}. and du {P}ontavice, {H}. and {R}eum, {J}. and {R}ichardson, {A}. {J}. and {S}chewe, {J}. and {S}hannon, {L}. and {S}hin, {Y}unne-{J}ai and {S}teenbeek, {J}. and {V}olkholz, {J}. and {W}alker, {N}. {D}. and {W}oodworth-{J}efcoats, {P}. and {B}lanchard, {J}. {L}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{C}limate change is affecting ocean temperature, acidity, currents, and primary production, causing shifts in species distributions, marine ecosystems, and ultimately fisheries. {E}arth system models simulate climate change impacts on physical and biogeochemical properties of future oceans under varying emissions scenarios. {C}oupling these simulations with an ensemble of global marine ecosystem models has indicated broad decreases of fish biomass with warming. {H}owever, regional details of these impacts remain much more uncertain. {H}ere, we employ {CMIP}5 and {CMIP}6 climate change impact projections using two {E}arth system models coupled with four regional and nine global marine ecosystem models in 10 ocean regions to evaluate model agreement at regional scales. {W}e find that models developed at different scales can lead to stark differences in biomass projections. {O}n average, global models projected greater biomass declines by the end of the 21st century than regional models. {F}or both global and regional models, greater biomass declines were projected using {CMIP}6 than {CMIP}5 simulations. {G}lobal models projected biomass declines in 86% of {CMIP}5 simulations for ocean regions compared to 50% for regional models in the same ocean regions. {I}n {CMIP}6 simulations, all global model simulations projected biomass declines in ocean regions by 2100, while regional models projected biomass declines in 67% of the ocean region simulations. {O}ur analysis suggests that improved understanding of the causes of differences between global and regional marine ecosystem model climate change projections is needed, alongside observational evaluation of modeled responses.},
  keywords = {model intercomparison project ({MIP}) ; model ensemble ; fisheries and marine ecosystem model intercomparison project ({F}ish{MIP}) ; inter-sectoral impact model intercomparison project ({ISIMIP}) ; fisheries},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{E}arths {F}uture},
  volume = {13},
  numero = {3},
  pages = {e2024{EF}005537 [23 p.]},
  year = {2025},
  DOI = {10.1029/2024ef005537},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010092874},
}