@article{fdi:010092806,
  title = {{P}aleorecords reveal biological mechanisms crucial for reliable species range shift projections amid rapid climate change},
  author = {van der {M}eersch, {V}. and {A}rmstrong, {E}. and {M}ouillot, {F}lorent and {D}uputie, {A}. and {D}avi, {H}. and {S}altr{\'e}, {F}. and {C}huine, {I}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he recent acceleration of global climate warming has created an urgent need for reliable projections of species distributions, widely used by natural resource managers. {S}uch projections have been mainly produced by species distribution models with little information on their performances in novel climates. {H}ere, we hindcast the range shifts of forest tree species across {E}urope over the last 12,000 years to compare the reliability of three different types of models. {W}e show that in the most climatically dissimilar conditions, process-explicit models ({PEM}s) tend to outperform correlative species distribution models ({CSDM}s), and that {PEM} projections are likely to be more reliable than those made with {CSDM}s by the end of the 21st century. {T}hese results demonstrate for the first time the often promoted albeit so far untested idea that explicit description of mechanisms confers model robustness, and highlight a new avenue to increase model projection reliability in the future.},
  keywords = {climate change ; ecological modelling ; hindcasting ; model ; transferability ; species range shift},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{E}cology {L}etters},
  volume = {28},
  numero = {2},
  pages = {e70080 [12 p.]},
  ISSN = {1461-023{X}},
  year = {2025},
  DOI = {10.1111/ele.70080},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010092806},
}