@article{fdi:010092802,
  title = {{T}oward more robust net primary production projections in the {N}orth {A}tlantic {O}cean},
  author = {{D}ol{\'e}ac, {S}. and {L}evy, {M}arina and {E}l {H}ourany, {R}. and {B}opp, {L}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{P}hytoplankton plays a crucial role in both climate regulation and marine biodiversity, yet it faces escalating threats due to climate change. {U}nderstanding future changes in phytoplankton biomass and productivity under climate change requires the utilization of {E}arth system models capable of resolving marine biogeochemistry. {T}hese models often differ significantly from one another, and most studies typically use the average response across an ensemble of models as the most reliable projection. {H}owever, in the {N}orth {A}tlantic, this straightforward method falls short of providing robust projections of phytoplankton net primary production ({NPP}) over the 21st century. {A} new inter-comparison approach was therefore developed and applied to eight models from the sixth phase of the {C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject ({CMIP}6) exhibiting substantial divergence in their {NPP} projections in the {N}orth {A}tlantic. {T}he basin was first divided into three bioregions tailored to the characteristics of each model using a novel method based on a clustering procedure. {T}he mechanisms controlling {NPP} projections were then identified in each model and in each bioregion, revealing two mechanisms responsible for a large part of model divergence: diazotrophy in the subtropical region and the presence of an ammonium pool in the subpolar region. {T}his allowed for an informed selection of models in each region based on the way they represent these two mechanisms, resulting in reduced projection uncertainty, enhanced total {NPP} decrease in the subtropical region, and a strengthened increase in small phytoplankton {NPP} in the subpolar {N}orth {A}tlantic. {T}hese model selections enhanced the decreases in carbon export and phytoplankton biomass but had no impact on zooplankton biomass. {T}his innovative approach has strong synergies with other widely used inter-comparison techniques, such as emergent constraints, and their combination would provide valuable insights into the future trajectory of the {E}arth's climate system.},
  keywords = {{ATLANTIQUE} {NORD}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{B}iogeosciences},
  volume = {22},
  numero = {4},
  pages = {841--862},
  ISSN = {1726-4170},
  year = {2025},
  DOI = {10.5194/bg-22-841-2025},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010092802},
}