@article{fdi:010092752,
  title = {{A}ssessing the time of emergence of marine ecosystems from global to local scales using {IPSL}-{CM}6{A}-{LR}/{APECOSM} climate-to-fish ensemble simulations},
  author = {{B}arrier, {N}icolas and {M}aury, {O}livier and {S}eferian, {R}. and {S}antana-{F}alcon, {Y}. and {T}idd, {A}. and {L}engaigne, {M}atthieu},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{C}limate change is anticipated to considerably reduce global marine fish biomass, driving marine ecosystems into unprecedented states with no historical analogs. {T}he {T}ime of {E}mergence ({T}o{E}) marks the pivotal moment when climate conditions (i.e., signal) deviate from pre-industrial norms (i.e., noise). {L}everaging ensemble climate-to-fish simulations from one {E}arth {S}ystem {M}odel ({IPSL}-{CM}6{A}-{LR}) and one {M}arine {E}cosystem {M}odel ({APECOSM}), this study examines the {T}o{E} of epipelagic, migratory and mesopelagic fish biomass alongside their main environmental drivers for two contrasted climate-change scenarios. {G}lobally averaged biomass signals emerge over the historical period. {E}pipelagic biomass decline emerged earlier (1950) than mesozooplankton decline (2017) due to a stronger signal in the early 20th century, possibly related to trophic amplification induced by an early emerging surface warming (1915). {T}rophic amplification is delayed for mesopelagic biomass due to postponed warming in the mesopelagic zone, resulting in a later emergence (2017). {T}o{E} also displays strong size class dependence, with epipelagic medium sizes (20 cm) experiencing delayed emergence compared to the largest (1 m) and smallest (1 cm) categories. {F}or the epipelagic and mesopelagic communities, the regional signal emergence lags behind the global average, with median {T}o{E} estimates of 2030 and 2034, respectively. {T}his is due to stronger noise in regional time-series than in global averages. {T}he regional {T}o{E}s are also spatially heterogeneous, driven predominantly by the signal pattern akin to mesozooplankton. {A}dditionally, our findings underscore that mitigation efforts (i.e., transitioning from {SSP}5-8.5 to {SSP}1-2.6 scenario) can potentially curtail emerging ocean surface signals by 30%.},
  keywords = {time of emergence ; marine ecosystem ; ensemble modeling ; climate change ; ecosystem modeling ; {MONDE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{E}arths {F}uture},
  volume = {13},
  numero = {2},
  pages = {e2024{EF}004736 [16 p.]},
  year = {2025},
  DOI = {10.1029/2024ef004736},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010092752},
}