Ndoye S. auteur aut IRD Echevin Vincent auteur aut IRD Mignot Juliette auteur aut IRD Capet X. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf reformatted digital access The Canary current upwelling System (CCS) is one the most productive marine ecosystems. CMIP5 simulations under the RCP8.5 scenario for the end of the 21st century project a modest upwelling-favorable wind decrease over the CCS southern outpost, that is, the southern senegalese upwelling center (SSUC). We explore the coastal-scale physical manifestations of climate change in the SSUC through dynamical downscaling of projected changes from nine CMIP5 models selected for their realistic representation of present-day thermohaline structure. We find that coastal upwelling reduction due to wind changes is projected to be aggravated by geostrophic/pressure adjustments related, in large part, to changes in upper ocean stratification. The reduction could reach 25% of present-day upwelling rates. The intensity of the poleward boundary current offshore of the SSUC is projected to decrease. Together with upper ocean warming this opens vast possibilities of ecological evolutions with large impact on neighboring societies. specialized coastal dynamics climate change upwelling downscaling modeling SSUC CAP VERT ATLANTIQUE CANARIAS 032 020 021 52 2 e2024GL112582 [11 ] 2025 0094-8276 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010092717 10.1029/2024gl112582 0094-8276 [F B010092717] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010092717 https://horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exl-doc/pleins_textes/2025-03/010092717.pdf IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2025-03-12 2025-11-04 fdi:010092717 fre