@article{fdi:010092688,
  title = {{P}robabilistic tephra fallout hazard maps for {S}angay volcano, {E}cuador},
  author = {{T}adini, {A}. and {P}ardini, {F}. and {B}evilacqua, {A}. and {B}ernard, {B}. and {S}amaniego, {P}ablo and {V}itturi, {M}. {D}. {M}. and {A}ravena, {A}. and {H}idalgo, {S}. and {R}oche, {O}livier and {A}zzaoui, {N}. and {N}eri, {A}. and {A}guilar, {J}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{S}angay volcano ({E}cuador) shows a quasi-continuous activity at least since the seventeenth century and has produced several eruptions which affected towns and cities at considerable distance (up to > 170 km). {F}or this reason, despite its remote location, recent efforts were aimed at reviewing its volcanic history, quantifying the occurrence probability of four eruptive scenarios of different magnitude ({S}trong {A}sh {V}enting, {V}iolent {S}trombolian, sub-{P}linian, and {P}linian) and the associated uncertainty, and, for each eruptive scenario, estimating the probability distribution of key eruptive source parameters (fallout volume, average plume height, and eruption duration). {I}n this study, we utilize such information to produce probabilistic hazard maps and curves. {T}o this aim, we use coupled plume and dispersal models ({PLUME}-{MOM}-{TSM} and {HYSPLIT}, respectively) with the application of a novel workflow for running an ensemble of thousands of simulations following a stochastic sampling of input parameters. {W}e produced probabilistic hazard maps for each scenario by considering four ground load thresholds (i.e., 0.1, 1, 10, and 100 kg/m(2)) and two types of model initialization strategies, based on the elicited total deposit volume and on the elicited plume height, respectively, which produced non-negligible differences. {I}n addition, we produced hazard curves for nine sites of interest from a risk perspective, corresponding to towns/cities potentially affected by tephra accumulation. {F}inally, we also derived combined maps by merging maps of single scenarios with their probability of occurrence as obtained from expert elicitation. {R}esults indicate that in case of a future eruption, even for a moderate-scale one ({V}iolent {S}trombolian), probability of tephra accumulation larger than 1 kg/m(2) is relatively high (from 21 to 24% considering different model initializations) in the town of {G}uamote, i.e., the most severely affected site among those tested (43 km {W} of {S}angay). {F}or larger-scale events (i.e., sub-{P}linian), the impact of tephra accumulation results to be significant even for the city of {G}uayaquil (176 km {W} of {S}angay), with probability of tephra accumulation larger than 1 kg/m(2) from 3 to 22% considering different model initializations. {F}or maps combining single maps of historically observed scenarios, the probability (% - [5(th)-{M}ean-95(th)]) of having >= 10 kg/m(2) for {G}uamote is [4-13-25] as maximum values.},
  keywords = {{S}angay volcano ; {T}ephra fallout ; {P}robabilistic maps ; {U}ncertainty ; quantification ; {PLUME}-{M}o{M}-{TSM} ; {HYSPLIT} ; {EQUATEUR} ; {SANGAY} {VOLCAN}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{B}ulletin of {V}olcanology},
  volume = {87},
  numero = {2},
  pages = {10 [23 p.]},
  ISSN = {0258-8900},
  year = {2025},
  DOI = {10.1007/s00445-025-01794-4},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010092688},
}