@article{fdi:010092591,
  title = {{S}ubseasonal forecasts of heat waves in {W}est {A}frican cities},
  author = {{L}angue, {C}. {G}. {N}. and {L}avaysse, {C}hristophe and {F}lamant, {C}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{H}eat waves are one of the most dangerous climatic hazards for human and ecosystem health worldwide. {A}ccurate forecasts of these events are useful for policy makers and climate services to anticipate the consequences of extreme heat. {I}n particular, subseasonal forecasts are of great importance in order to implement actions to mitigate the consequences of extreme heat on human and ecosystem health. {I}n this perspective, the present study addresses the predictability of heat waves at subseasonal timescales in {W}est {A}frican cities over the period 2001-2020. {T}he cities were grouped in three climatic regions based on their climate variability: the continental, {A}tlantic and {G}uinean regions. {T}wo types of heat waves were analysed: dry heat waves using 2 m temperature and wet heat waves using average wet bulb temperature. {T}wo models that are part of the subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting project, namely the {E}uropean {C}entre for {M}edium-{R}ange {W}eather {F}orecasts ({ECMWF}) and the {U}nited {K}ingdom {M}eteorological {O}ffice models, were evaluated using two state-of-the-art reanalysis products, namely the fifth generation {ECMWF} reanalysis ({ERA}5) and the {M}odern-{E}ra {R}etrospective analysis for {R}esearch and {A}pplication, {V}ersion 2 ({MERRA}-2). {T}he performance of the forecast models in predicting heat waves is assessed through the computation of categorical metrics such as the hit rate, the {G}ilbert skill score and the false alarm ratio. {T}he results suggest that at subseasonal timescales, the forecast models provide a better forecast than climatology, but the hit rate and false alarm rate are sub-optimal and the forecasts may be overestimating the duration of heat waves while under-predicting the intensity. {N}evertheless, the use of subseasonal forecasts in {W}est {A}frican cities can be recommended for prediction of heat wave onset up to 2 weeks in advance.},
  keywords = {{AFRIQUE} {DE} {L}'{OUEST} ; {BAMAKO} ; {OUAGADOUGOU} ; {NIAMEY} ; {DAKAR} ; {NOUAKCHOTT} ; {MONROVIA} ; {CONAKRY} ; {YAMOUSSOUKRO} ; {ABIDJAN} ; {LOME} ; {ABUJA} ; {LAGOS} ; {ACCRA} ; {COTONOU} ; {DOUALA}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{N}atural {H}azards and {E}arth {S}ystem {S}ciences},
  volume = {25},
  numero = {1},
  pages = {147--168},
  ISSN = {1561-8633},
  year = {2025},
  DOI = {10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010092591},
}