@article{fdi:010092574,
  title = {{T}he projected impacts of climate change and fishing pressure on a tropical marine food web},
  author = {{A}ngelini, {R}. and {L}ima, {M}. {A}. {L}. and {L}ira, {A}. {S}. and {L}ucena-{F}r{\'e}dou, {F}. and {F}r{\'e}dou, {T}. and {B}ertrand, {A}rnaud and {G}iarrizzo, {T}. and {S}teenbeek, {J}. and {C}oll, {M}arta and {K}eppeler, {F}. {W}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{S}mall-scale fisheries, especially those from developing countries, are vital for millions. {U}nderstanding the impact of environmental and human factors on fish stocks and yields and how they might change is crucial to ensure the sustainable use of aquatic resources. {W}e developed an ecosystem model using {E}copath and {E}cosim ({E}w{E}) to investigate changes in target species biomass and ecosystem attributes over 83 years (2017-2100) caused by different scenarios of fishing pressure and ocean warming in the {B}razilian {N}ortheastern continental shelf. {T}he simulations considered three {IPCC} climate change scenarios ({RCP}2.6 [0.42 degrees {C}], {RCP}4.5 [1.53 degrees {C}], and {RCP}8.5 [4.02 degrees {C}]) and four fishing pressure scenarios: two with increased pressure (10% and 30%) and two with decreased pressure (-10% and -30%). {T}he {E}copath model indicated that the {B}razilian {N}ortheastern continental shelf ecosystem is a grazing-based system with high biomass in macroalgae and detritus compartments, supporting a diverse community of consumers. {O}ur simulations projected overall reductions in the biomass of target species, mainly under extreme climate change. {I}ncreasing temperatures and fishing efforts reduced the biomass of large predatory species and the food web length in several scenarios. {A}lthough projected changes in ecological network and information metrics were of lower magnitude, results predicted declines in production/respiration ratio, material cycling, and ascendency (variable related to trophic specialization, internalization, and material cycling) with climate change. {T}hese declines were likely linked to increased respiration rates, metabolic costs, and lower trophic efficiency with elevated temperatures. {T}ogether, our results show how climate change and fishing pressure can change the structure of coastal ecosystems, potentially leading to undesirable alternative states for fisheries. {O}ur approach demonstrates the effectiveness of ecosystem-based modeling in projecting likely trajectories of change, which can be especially useful for resource management in data-limited conditions.},
  keywords = {{F}ishing effort ; {S}ea warming ; {S}mall-scale fisheries ; {M}arine ecosystem ; models ; {P}rojections ; {BRESIL} ; {ATLANTIQUE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{M}arine {E}nvironmental {R}esearch},
  volume = {204},
  numero = {},
  pages = {106909 [16 p.]},
  ISSN = {0141-1136},
  year = {2025},
  DOI = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106909},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010092574},
}