@article{fdi:010092530,
  title = {{T}ropical forests are approaching critical temperature thresholds},
  author = {{D}oughty, {C}.{E}. and {K}eany, {J}.{M}. and {W}iebe, {B}.{C}. and {R}ey-{S}anchez, {C}. and {C}arter, {K}.{R}. and {M}iddleby, {K}.{B}. and {C}heesman, {A}.{W}. and {G}oulden, {M}.{L}. and da {R}ocha, {H}.{R}. and {M}iller, {S}.{D}. and {M}ahli, {Y}. and {F}auset, {S}. and {G}loor, {E}. and {S}lot, {M}. and {O}liveras {M}enor, {I}mma and {C}rous, {K}.{Y}. and {G}oldsmith, {G}.{R}. and {F}isher, {J}.{B}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he critical temperature beyond which photosynthetic machinery in tropical trees begins to fail averages approximately 46.7°{C} ({T}crit). {H}owever, it remains unclear whether leaf temperatures experienced by tropical vegetation approach this threshold or soon will under climate change. {H}ere we found that pantropical canopy temperatures independently triangulated from individual leaf thermocouples, pyrgeometers and remote sensing ({ECOSTRESS}) have midday peak temperatures of approximately 34°{C} during dry periods, with a long high-temperature tail that can exceed 40 °{C}. {L}eaf thermocouple data from multiple sites across the tropics suggest that even within pixels of moderate temperatures, upper canopy leaves exceed {T}crit 0.01% of the time. {F}urthermore, upper canopy leaf warming experiments (+2, 3 and 4°{C} in {B}razil, {P}uerto {R}ico and {A}ustralia, respectively) increased leaf temperatures non-linearly, with peak leaf temperatures exceeding {T}crit 1.3% of the time (11% for more than 43.5°{C}, and 0.3% for more than 49.9°{C}). {U}sing an empirical model incorporating these dynamics (validated with warming experiment data), we found that tropical forests can withstand up to a 3.9 ± 0.5 °{C} increase in air temperatures before a potential tipping point in metabolic function, but remaining uncertainty in the plasticity and range of {T}crit in tropical trees and the effect of leaf death on tree death could drastically change this prediction. {T}he 4.0°{C} estimate is within the 'worst-case scenario' (representative concentration pathway ({RCP}) 8.5) of climate change predictions for tropical forests and therefore it is still within our power to decide (for example, by not taking the {RCP} 6.0 or 8.5 route) the fate of these critical realms of carbon, water and biodiversity.},
  keywords = {{ZONE} {TROPICALE} ; {BRESIL} ; {PORTO} {RICO} ; {AUSTRALIE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{N}ature},
  volume = {621},
  numero = {7977},
  pages = {105--111},
  ISSN = {0028-0836},
  year = {2023},
  DOI = {10.1038/s41586-023-06391-z},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010092530},
}