@inproceedings{fdi:010092478, title = {{C}limate change effects on tree growth are mediated by local average climate in tropical moist forests [poster]}, author = {{B}auman, {D}avid and {M}c{M}ahon, {S}.{M}. and {M}alhi, {Y}. and {P}hilips, {O}. and {F}arfan-{R}ios, {W}. and {S}ilman, {M}. and {O}liveras {M}enor, {I}mma and {R}ifai, {S}.{W}. and {D}elhaye, {G}. and {B}rienen, {R}. and {P}ipoly, {J}. and {M}urphy, {H}. and {R}iutta, {T}. and {D}avila {C}ardozo, {N}.{M}. and {S}hareva, {Y}.{C}.{S}. and {L}opez {G}onzalez, {G}. and {B}ennett, {A}. and {M}onteagudo-{M}endoza, {A}. and {A}ffum-{B}affoe, {J}. and {V}asquez, {R}. and {L}ewis, {S}.{L}. and {B}aker, {T}. and {H}ubau, {W}. and {F}oli, {E}.{G}. and {V}inceti, {B}. and {F}lores, {G}.{R}. and {H}uamantupa, {I}. and {T}albot, {J}. and del {A}guila {P}asquel, {J}. and {D}isney, {M}. and {S}ilva {E}spejo, {J}.{E}. and {D}isney, {M}. and {S}waine, {M}.{D}. and {F}eldpausch, {T}. and {G}irardin, {C}. and {M}oore, {S}. and {A}du-{B}redu, {D}.{S}. and {M}ihindu, {V}. and {J}effrey, {K}.{J}. and {W}hite, {L}. and {D}argie, {G}. and {F}ortunel, {C}laire}, editor = {}, language = {{ENG}}, abstract = {{T}ropical forests are vital to biodiversity and the global carbon sink but are increasingly vulnerable to climate change. {T}his study assesses the causal effects of climate anomalies on tropical forests' tree growth across the tropics, focusing on temperature ({TEMP}an), evaporative demand ({VPD}an), solar radiation ({SRAD}an), and water deficit ({MCWD}an). {W}e use a causal inference framework and {B}ayesian multilevel models with data from 89 permanent plots across {S}outh {A}merica, {A}frica, {S}outheast {A}sia, and {O}ceania. {R}esults show that increasing {TEMP}an, {MCWD}an, and {SRAD}an negatively impact tree growth, with {TEMP}an effects primarily mediated by {VPD}. {G}rowth decline is more pronounced in warmer tropical forests, with no clear biogeographic differences. {T}hese findings suggest that the productivity of warm moist tropical forests may be threatened by climate change and underscore the need to study the interplay between anomalies and historical climates while using causal inference frameworks to avoid spurious associations.}, keywords = {{AM}É{RIQUE} {DU} {SUD} ; {AFRIQUE} ; {ASIE} {DU} {SUD} {EST} ; {OCEANIE}}, numero = {}, pages = {1 multigr.}, booktitle = {}, year = {2024}, URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010092478}, }