@article{fdi:010092370,
  title = {{I}ncreased population exposure to {A}mphan-scale cyclones under future climates},
  author = {{M}itchell, {D}. and {H}awker, {L}. and {S}avage, {J}. and {B}ingham, {R}. and {L}ord, {N}.{S}. and {K}han, {M}.{J}.{U}. and {B}ates, {P}. and {D}urand, {F}abien and {H}assan, {A}. and {H}uq, {S}. and {I}slam, {A}.{S}. and {K}rien, {Y}. and {N}eal, {J}. and {S}ampson, {C}. and {S}mith, {A}. and {T}estut, {L}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{S}outhern {A}sia experiences some of the most damaging climate events in the world, with loss of life from some cyclones in the hundreds of thousands. {D}espite this, research on climate extremes in the region is substantially lacking compared to other parts of the world. {T}o understand the narrative of how an extreme event in the region may change in the future, we consider {S}uper {C}yclone {A}mphan, which made landfall in {M}ay 2020, bringing storm surges of 2-4 m to coastlines of {I}ndia and {B}angladesh. {U}sing the latest {CMIP}6 climate model projections, coupled with storm surge, hydrological, and socio economic models, we consider how the population exposure to a storm surge of {A}mphan's scale changes in the future. {W}e vary future sea level rise and population changes consistent with projections out to 2100, but keep other factors constant. {B}oth {I}ndia and {B}angladesh will be negatively impacted, with {I}ndia showing >200% increased exposure to extreme storm surge flooding (>3 m) under a high emissions scenario and {B}angladesh showing an increase in exposure of >80% for low level flooding (>0.1 m). {I}t is only when we follow a low emission scenario, consistent with the 2°{C} {P}aris {A}greement {G}oal, that we see no real change in {B}angladesh's storm surge exposure, mainly due to the population and climate signals cancelling each other out. {F}or {I}ndia, even with this low emission scenario, increases in flood exposure are still substantial (>50%). {W}hile here we attribute only the storm surge flooding component of the event to climate change, we highlight that tropical cyclones are multifaceted, and damages are often an integration of physical and social components. {W}e recommend that future climate risk assessments explicitly account for potential compounding factors.},
  keywords = {{INDE} ; {BANGLADESH} ; {GOLFE} {DU} {BENGALE} ; {OCEAN} {INDIEN}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{C}limate {R}esilience and {S}ustainability},
  volume = {1},
  numero = {2},
  pages = {e36 [16 ]},
  ISSN = {2692-4587},
  year = {2022},
  DOI = {10.1002/cli2.36},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010092370},
}