@article{fdi:010092257,
  title = {{D}ecadal prediction centers prepare for a major volcanic eruption},
  author = {{S}ospedra-{A}lfonso, {R}. and {M}erryfield, {W}. {J}. and {T}oohey, {M}. and {T}immreck, {C}. and {V}ernier, {J}. {P}. and {B}ethke, {I}. and {W}ang, {Y}. {G}. and {B}ilbao, {R}. and {D}onat, {M}. {G}. and {O}rtega, {P}. and {C}ole, {J}. and {L}ee, {W}. {S}. and {D}elworth, {T}. {L}. and {P}aynter, {D}. and {Z}eng, {F}. {R}. and {Z}hang, {L}. {P}. and {K}hodri, {M}yriam and {M}ignot, {J}uliette and {S}wingedouw, {D}. and {T}orres, {O}. and {H}u, {S}. and {M}an, {W}. {M}. and {Z}uo, {M}. and {H}ermanson, {L}. and {S}mith, {D}. and {K}ataoka, {T}. and {T}atebe, {H}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he {W}orld {M}eteorological {O}rganization's {L}ead {C}entre for {A}nnual-to-{D}ecadal {C}limate {P}rediction issues operational forecasts annually as guidance for regional climate centers, climate outlook forums, and national meteorological and hydrological services. {T}he occurrence of a large volcanic eruption such as that of {M}ount {P}inatubo in 1991, however, would invalidate these forecasts and prompt producers to modify their predictions. {T}o assist and prepare decadal prediction centers for this eventuality, the {V}olcanic {R}esponse activities under the {W}orld {C}limate {R}esearch {P}rogramme's {A}tmospheric {P}rocesses and {T}heir {R}ole in {C}limate ({APARC}) and the {D}ecadal {C}limate {P}rediction {P}roject ({DCPP}) organized a community exercise to respond to a hypothetical large eruption occurring in {A}pril 2022. {A}s part of this exercise, the {E}asy {V}olcanic {A}erosol forcing generator was used to provide stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical properties customized to the configurations of individual decadal prediction models. {P}articipating centers then reran forecasts for 2022-26 from their original initialization dates and, in most cases, also from just before the eruption at the beginning of {A}pril 2022, according to two candidate response protocols. {T}his article describes various aspects of this {APARC}/{DCPP} {V}olcanic {R}esponse {R}eadiness {E}xercise ({V}ol{R}es-{RE}), including the hypothesized volcanic event, the modified forecasts under the two protocols from the eight contributing centers, the lessons learned during the coordination and execution of this exercise, and the recommendations to the decadal prediction community for the response to an actual eruption.},
  keywords = {{C}limate prediction ; {O}perational forecasting ; {C}limate models ; {C}limate variability ; {D}ecadal variability ; {A}erosol radiative effect ; {MONDE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{B}ulletin of the {A}merican {M}eteorological {S}ociety},
  volume = {105},
  numero = {12},
  pages = {e2496--e2524},
  ISSN = {0003-0007},
  year = {2024},
  DOI = {10.1175/bams-d-23-0111.1},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010092257},
}