@article{fdi:010092178,
  title = {{M}odeling the velocity of evolving lineages and predicting dispersal patterns},
  author = {{B}astide, {P}. and {R}ocu, {P}. and {W}irtz, {J}. and {H}assler, {G}. {W}. and {C}hevenet, {F}ran{\c{c}}ois and {F}argette, {D}enis and {S}uchard, {M}. {A}. and {D}ellicour, {S}. and {L}emey, {P}. and {G}uindon, {S}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{A}ccurate estimation of the dispersal velocity or speed of evolving organisms is no mean feat. {I}n fact, existing probabilistic models in phylogeography or spatial population genetics generally do not provide an adequate framework to define velocity in a relevant manner. {F}or instance, the very concept of instantaneous speed simply does not exist under one of the most popular approaches that models the evolution of spatial coordinates as {B}rownian trajectories running along a phylogeny. {H}ere, we introduce a use {G}aussian processes to explicitly model the velocity of evolving lineages instead of focusing on the fluctuation of spatial coordinates over time. {W}e describe the properties of these models and show an increased accuracy of velocity estimates compared to previous approaches. {A}nalyses of {W}est {N}ile virus data in the {U}nited {S}tates indicate that {PIV} models provide sensible predictions of the dispersal of evolving pathogens at a one-year time horizon. {T}hese results demonstrate the feasibility and relevance of predictive phylogeography in monitoring epidemics in time and space.},
  keywords = {phylogeography ; {B}ayesian inference ; {W}est {N}ile virus ; integrated velocity ; models ; {ETATS} {UNIS}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{P}roceedings of the {N}ational {A}cademy of {S}ciences of the {U}nited {S}tates of {A}merica},
  volume = {121},
  numero = {47},
  pages = {{E}2411582121 [9 ]},
  ISSN = {0027-8424},
  year = {2024},
  DOI = {10.1073/pnas.2411582121},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010092178},
}