@article{fdi:010092034,
  title = {{A}ssessing {CMIP} models' ability to detect observed surface warming signals related to climate change},
  author = {{G}opika, {S}. and {L}engaigne, {M}atthieu and {S}uresh, {I}. and {I}zumo, {T}akeshi and {K}watra, {S}. and {N}eetu, {S}. and {V}ialard, {J}{\'e}r{\^o}me},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{A}ssessing if {CMIP} models can detect observed climate change signals is crucial for evaluating their realism and strengthening confidence in future projections. {T}hese signals can only be compared once distinguishable from the background climate "noise." {B}uilt for impact studies but not detection purpose, the time of emergence ({T}o{E}) estimates when this occurs using a fi xed signal-to-noise ratio. {T}o more accurately assess models' ability to reproduce observed climate change signals, we introduce the time of detection ({T}o{D}), which employs a statistical significance test of the nonlinear trend, accounting for the time series length. {T}o{D} and {T}o{E} are computed for sea surface temperature ({SST}) and relative {SST} ({RSST}) across four observational and 69 {CMIP}5/6 historical and shared socioeconomic pathways 5-8.5 ({SSP}5-8.5) scenario datasets. {T}o{D} precedes {T}o{E} and is less sensitive to the chosen threshold. {W}hile already detectable in most of the tropics, {SST} warming in the equatorial {P}acific is detectable in-90% of models but only one out of four observational datasets, due to a stronger modeled warming. {B}ecause {RSST} signals are weaker than {SST} signals, they do not emerge anywhere but are detectable in two regions. {T}he enhanced warming in the western {I}ndian {O}cean, detected in-45% of models, is not robust in observations when excluding pre-1960 dubious data. {C}onversely, the subdued southeast {P}acific warming detected in observations and-80% of models is robust and consistent with a poleward extension of the {S}outhern {H}emisphere {H}adley cell. {T}he {T}o{D}'s ability to detect subtle signals allows for assessing the realism of the {CMIP} warming pattern in this region.},
  keywords = {{T}ropics ; {S}ea surface temperature ; {C}limate change ; {C}limate variability ; {C}oupled models ; {M}odel comparison},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{J}ournal of {C}limate},
  volume = {37},
  numero = {22},
  pages = {6011--6027},
  ISSN = {0894-8755},
  year = {2024},
  DOI = {10.1175/jcli-d-24-0102.1},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010092034},
}