@article{fdi:010091894,
  title = {{G}reenhouse warming-induced changes in {I}ndian summer monsoon-{ENSO} teleconnections as modulated by the {N}orth {T}ropical {A}tlantic},
  author = {{A}swale, {A}. {M}. and {S}ooraj, {K}. {P}. and {T}erray, {P}ascal and {S}wapna, {P}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{R}ecently, the {N}orth {T}ropical {A}tlantic ({NTA}) {S}ea {S}urface {T}emperature ({SST}) anomalies emerge as a key-driver in the biennial transitions of {E}l {N}i & ntilde;o {S}outhern {O}scillation ({ENSO}) and by extension of the whole {ENSO}-{I}ndian {S}ummer {M}onsoon ({ISM}) system. {I}n this context, we utilized a suite of {C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject {P}hase 6 ({CMIP}6) models with the {S}hared {S}ocioeconomic {P}athways ({SSP}2-4.5 and {SSP}5-8.5) and historical simulations to investigate whether the {ENSO}-{ISM} teleconnections as well as its biennial signature undergoes significant modulations in the future warming climate as mediated through the {NTA} {SST}s. {O}ur results reveal a pronounced increase in {NTA} variability under greenhouse warming, associated with an enhanced two-way teleconnection between {NTA} and {ENSO}, while the increase of {ENSO} variability is more modest. {T}here is an exaggerated signature for the previous {ENSO} {SST}s impacting boreal spring {NTA} {SST}s, compared to a modest enhancement in {NTA} forcing on the following {ENSO} state. {H}owever, intriguingly, this later signature of {NTA} damping the {ENSO} variability seems to strengthen steadily from the historical simulation to the {SSP}5-8.5, implying an enhanced {NTA} forcing and biennial rhythm in future projections. {I}n consonance with this emerging {NTA} signal, there is a significant increase in the variability of {ISM} rainfall by 21st century, together with a modest strengthening of the {ENSO}-{ISM} relationships in the future warming scenarios. {W}e also noted consistent future strengthening of a biennial signature in the {ENSO}-{ISM} teleconnection. {I}t is further inferred that the {P}acific equatorial zonal {SST} gradient in conjunction with the {NTA} relative warming act as important sources for the future intensification of this biennial signal in {ENSO} variability and for the inter-model spread in the projections. {I}n contrast to this, the future intensification in {ISM} rainfall variability and its biennial signature are not uniquely driven by these factors.},
  keywords = {{ISM} ; {NTA} ; {NTA}-{ENSO}-{ISM} teleconnections ; {B}iennial signature ; {CMIP}6 future ; projections ; {INDE} ; {ATLANTIQUE} ; {ZONE} {TROPICALE} ; {ATLANTIQUE} {NORD}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{C}limate {D}ynamics},
  volume = {62},
  numero = {},
  pages = {10325--10346},
  ISSN = {0930-7575},
  year = {2024},
  DOI = {10.1007/s00382-024-07454-1},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010091894},
}