@incollection{fdi:010091509,
  title = {{F}uture projections for the tropical {I}ndian {O}cean},
  author = {{R}oxy, {M}.{K}. and {S}aranya, {J}.{S}. and {M}odi, {A}. and {A}nusree, {A}. and {C}ai, {W}. and {R}esplandy, {L}. and {V}ialard, {J}{\'e}r{\^o}me and {F}r{\¨o}licher, {T}.{L}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he tropical {I}ndian {O}cean has undergone basin-wide surface warming since the start of the 20th century, with a rate of 0.12°{C} per decade between 1950 and 2020, which is the fastest among the tropical basins. {T}he warming penetrates the deep ocean, with an increase in the ocean heat content from the surface until 2000 m ({OHC}2000) at a rate of 3.7 zetta-joules per decade during 1960-2016. {H}ere, we summarize our current understanding of the future changes in the {I}ndian {O}cean state based on climate model projections. {C}limate models under the {C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject {P}hase 6 project that in response to mid-to-high greenhouse gas emissions the {I}ndian {O}cean will very likely experience surface warming of 1.4-3°{C} between 2020 and 2100, at a rate of 0.17-0.38°{C} per decade. {T}he {OHC}2000 is projected to increase at a rate of 16-22 zetta-joules per decade under mid-to-high emission scenarios. {M}arine heatwaves are projected to increase from 20 days per year (during 1970-2000) to 220-250 days per year, pushing the tropical {I}ndian {O}cean into a basin-wide near-permanent heatwave state by the end of the 21st century. {I}n response to the ocean warming, {E}arth system models project a significant decline in surface chlorophyll and annual net primary productivity, with the strongest decrease of about 8%-10% in the western {A}rabian {S}ea. {T}he {I}ndian {O}cean is projected to acidify further, with the surface p{H} of the tropical {I}ndian {O}cean decreasing to a p{H} below 7.7 by the end of the 21st century, compared to a p{H} above 8.1 during the early 20th century. {E}arth system model projections do not agree on the evolution of subsurface oxygen concentrations, calling for an improvement in the representation of biogeochemical processes or improved bias correction techniques. {T}he rapid warming, decline in primary productivity, and acidification will continue to increase the pressure on the marine ecosystem and coral reefs.},
  keywords = {{OCEAN} {INDIEN}},
  booktitle = {{T}he {I}ndian {O}cean and its role in the global climate system},
  numero = {},
  pages = {469--482},
  address = {},
  series = {},
  year = {2024},
  DOI = {10.1016/b978-0-12-822698-8.00004-4},
  ISBN = {978-0-12-822698-8 },
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010091509},
}