@article{fdi:010091381,
  title = {{P}robabilistic, scenario-based hazard assessment for pyroclastic density currents at {T}ungurahua volcano, {E}cuador},
  author = {{A}ravena, {A}. and {T}adini, {A}. and {B}evilacqua, {A}. and {S}amaniego, {P}ablo and {B}ernard, {B}. and {H}idalgo, {S}. and {L}e {P}ennec, {J}ean-{L}uc and {M}artínez-{Y}áñez, {P}. and {G}arcía, {J}. and {R}oche, {O}livier},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{W}e assess the volcanic hazard posed by pyroclastic density currents ({PDC}s) at {T}ungurahua volcano, {E}cuador, using a probabilistic approach based on the analysis of calibrated numerical simulations. {W}e address the expected variability of explosive eruptions at {T}ungurahua volcano by adopting a scenario-based strategy, where we consider three cases: violent {S}trombolian to {V}ulcanian eruption ({VEI} 2), sub-{P}linian eruption ({VEI} 3), and sub-{P}linian to {P}linian eruption ({VEI} 4-5). {PDC}s are modeled using the branching energy cone model and the branching box model, considering reproducible calibration procedures based on the geological record of {T}ungurahua volcano. {T}he use of different calibration procedures and reference {PDC} deposits allows us to define uncertainty ranges for the inundation probability of each scenario. {N}umerical results indicate that {PDC}s at {T}ungurahua volcano propagate preferentially toward {W} and {NW}, where a series of catchment ravines can be recognized. {T}wo additional valleys of channelization are observed in the {N} and {NE} flanks of the volcano, which may affect the city of {B}a & ntilde;os. {T}he mean inundation probability calculated for {B}a & ntilde;os is small (6 +/- 3%) for {PDC}s similar to those emplaced during recent {VEI} 2 eruptions ({J}uly 2006, {F}ebruary 2008, {M}ay 2010, {J}uly 2013, {F}ebruary 2014, and {F}ebruary 2016), and on the order of 13 +/- 4% for a {PDC} similar to that produced during the sub-{P}linian phase of the {A}ugust 2006 eruption ({VEI} 3). {T}he highest intensity scenario ({VEI} 4-5), for which we present and implement a novel calibration procedure based on a few control points, produces inundation areas that nearly always include inhabited centers such as {B}a & ntilde;os, {P}uela, and {C}otal & oacute;, among others. {T}his calibration method is well suited for eruptive scenarios that lack detailed field information, and could be replicated for poorly known active volcanoes around the world.},
  keywords = {{H}azard assessment ; {P}yroclastic density currents ; {T}ungurahua volcano ; {EQUATEUR}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{B}ulletin of {V}olcanology},
  volume = {86},
  numero = {10},
  pages = {84 [18 p.]},
  ISSN = {0258-8900},
  year = {2024},
  DOI = {10.1007/s00445-024-01768-y},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010091381},
}