@article{fdi:010091359,
  title = {{F}uture changes in agrometeorological extremes in the southern {M}editerranean region : when and where will they affect croplands and wheatlands ?},
  author = {{M}irgol, {B}. and {D}ieppois, {B}. and {N}orthey, {J}. and {E}den, {J}. and {J}arlan, {L}ionel and {K}habba, {S}. and {L}e {P}age, {M}ichel and {M}ah{\'e}, {G}il},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{C}limate change and extremes are increasingly threatening food security, especially in the {G}lobal {S}outh. {H}ere, we examine how croplands and wheatlands of the southern {M}editerranean region could be affected by projected changes in agrometeorological extremes over the 21st century. {W}e use 17 bias-corrected climate models from the sixth phase of the {C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject ({CMIP}6) to identify potential trends and assess the time of emergence of significant changes in agrometeorological extremes under the {S}hared {S}ocioeconomic {P}athway ({SSP}3-7.0). {W}e note that simulated historical trends in agrometeorological extremes closely match observed trends, here derived from {ERA}5land, over croplands. {O}ur analysis of {CMIP}6 projected scenarios reveals a consistent rise in heat intensity, drought intensity, and the frequency of compound dry and hot ({D}5/{H}95) days. {W}hile a reduction in frost intensity, combined with fewer wet and cold ({W}95/{C}5) and dry and cold ({D}5/{C}5) events offer some mitigation potential, concerns about water scarcity due to heightened heat and drought stresses may overshadow these benefits. {T}hese changes in agrometeorological extremes are projected to emerge in the near- and mid-term future (by 2030 and 2050). {W}e also note that the projected decreases in cold extremes affect smaller agricultural regions than the increases in extreme heat. {W}e find higher likelihoods of negative agrometeorological impacts over croplands and wheatlands throughout the 21st century, which could significantly challenge crop yields and agricultural sustainability. {W}ithout proactive adaptation and mitigation strategies, food security could come increasingly under threat in a changing climate in the southern {M}editerranean region.},
  keywords = {{S}outhern {M}editerranean ; {C}roplands ; {W}heatlands ; {A}grometeorological ; extremes ; {CMIP}6 ; {MAROC} ; {ALGERIE} ; {TUNISIE} ; {ZONE} {MEDITERRANEENNE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{A}gricultural and {F}orest {M}eteorology},
  volume = {358},
  numero = {},
  pages = {110232 [19 ]},
  ISSN = {0168-1923},
  year = {2024},
  DOI = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110232},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010091359},
}