@article{fdi:010091245,
  title = {{P}hysics-based assessment of earthquake potential on the {A}nninghe-{Z}emuhe fault system in southwestern {C}hina},
  author = {{D}iao, {F}. {Q}. and {W}eng, {H}. {H}. and {A}mpuero, {J}ean-{P}aul and {S}hao, {Z}. {G}. and {W}ang, {R}. {J}. and {L}ong, {F}. and {X}iong, {X}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he seismic hazard of a fault system is controlled by the maximum possible earthquake magnitude it can host. {H}owever, existing methods to estimate maximum magnitudes can result in large uncertainties or ignore their temporal evolution. {H}ere, we show how the maximum possible earthquake magnitude of a fault system can be assessed by combining high-resolution fault coupling maps with a physics-based model from three-dimensional dynamic fracture mechanics confirmed by dynamic rupture simulations. {W}e demonstrate the method on the {A}nninghe-{Z}emuhe fault system in southwestern {C}hina, where dense near-fault geodetic data has been acquired. {O}ur results show that this fault system currently has the potential to generate {M}w7.0 earthquakes with maximum magnitudes increasing to {M}w7.3 by 2200. {T}hese results are supported by the observed rupture extents and recurrence times of historical earthquakes and the b values of current seismicity. {O}ur work provides a practical way to assess the earthquake potential of natural faults. {I}n this study, the authors show how the maximum possible earthquake magnitude of a fault system can be assessed by combining high-resolution fault coupling maps with a physics-based theoretical model. {T}hey demonstrate the method on the {A}nninghe-{Z}emuhe fault system in southwestern {C}hina.},
  keywords = {{CHINE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{N}ature {C}ommunications},
  volume = {15},
  numero = {1},
  pages = {6908 [9 p.]},
  year = {2024},
  DOI = {10.1038/s41467-024-51313-w},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010091245},
}