@article{fdi:010091205,
  title = {{T}he {I}ndian {O}cean {D}ipole in a warming world},
  author = {{W}ang, {G}. {J}. and {C}ai, {W}. {J}. and {S}antoso, {A}. and {A}bram, {N}. and {N}g, {B}. and {Y}ang, {K}. and {G}eng, {T}. and {D}oi, {T}. and {D}u, {Y}. and {I}zumo, {T}akeshi and {A}shok, {K}. and {L}i, {J}. {P}. and {L}i, {T}. and {M}c{K}enna, {S}. and {S}un, {S}. {W}. and {T}ozuka, {T}. and {Z}heng, {X}. {T}. and {L}iu, {Y}. and {W}u, {L}. {X}. and {J}ia, {F}. and {H}u, {S}. {J}. and {L}i, {X}. {C}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he {I}ndian {O}cean {D}ipole ({IOD}) strongly affects the climate of the {I}ndo-{P}acific. {O}bservations suggest a shift towards stronger and earlier positive {IOD} (p{IOD}) events alongside an increased amplitude of sea surface temperature ({SST}) anomalies, but uncertainty remains, impeding assessments of ongoing changes. {I}n this {R}eview, we synthesize the available knowledge of projected changes in the {IOD} during the twenty-first century under anthropogenic warming. {C}ompared to observations, models struggle to simulate the {B}jerknes feedback, asymmetry in the strength of positive and negative {IOD} anomalies and {E}l {N}ino-{S}outhern {O}scillation or monsoonal forcings. {Y}et several models do capture important feedbacks reasonably well and offer useful tools with which to assess {IOD} evolution. {A} p{IOD}-like {SST} warming pattern (an enhanced west-minus-east {SST} gradient) alongside shifts in feedback process drive corresponding changes to the {IOD}. {O}ver the course of the twenty-first century, robust changes include: enhanced {IOD} {SST} variability (as measured by the first principal component of spring {SST} variability, not the dipole mode index); an increase in strong rainfall p{IOD} events; an increase and decrease in the frequency of strong-p{IOD} and moderate-p{IOD}, respectively, as defined by {SST}; and an increase in the frequency of early-p{IOD} events. {P}alaeo evidence reveals similar increases in the magnitude and frequency of p{IOD} events underpinned by a similar pattern of mean state change ({L}ast {G}lacial {M}aximum, post-1960), reinforcing {IOD} projections. {S}ustained international efforts are needed to improve {IOD} simulations and reduce projection uncertainties. {T}he {I}ndian {O}cean {D}ipole ({IOD}) exerts strong control on the {I}ndo-{P}acific climate. {T}his {R}eview outlines twenty-first-century changes in the {IOD}, noting robust increases in eastern pole sea surface temperature variability, more frequent strong and early positive {IOD} events, and less frequent moderate positive {IOD} events.},
  keywords = {{OCEAN} {INDIEN} ; {MONDE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{N}ature {R}eviews {E}arth and {E}nvironment},
  volume = {5},
  numero = {8},
  pages = {588--604},
  year = {2024},
  DOI = {10.1038/s43017-024-00573-7},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010091205},
}