@article{fdi:010091197,
  title = {{P}otential population-level effects of {HIV} self-test distribution among key populations in {C}{\^o}te d'{I}voire, {M}ali, and {S}enegal : a mathematical modelling analysis},
  author = {{S}ilhol, {R}. and {M}aheu-{G}iroux, {M}. and {S}oni, {N}. and {F}otso, {A}. {S}. and {R}ouveau, {N}icolas and {V}autier, {A}. and {D}oumenc-{A}idara, {C}. and {G}eoffroy, {O}. and {N}'{G}uessan, {K}. {N}. and {S}idibe, {Y}. and {K}abemba, {O}. {K}. and {G}ueye, {P}. {A}. and {N}deye, {P}. {D}. and {M}ukandavire, {C}. and {V}ickerman, {P}. and {K}eita, {A}. and {N}dour, {C}. {T}. and {L}armarange, {J}oseph and {B}oily, {M}. {C}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{B}ackground {D}uring 2019-21, the {A}uto{T}est {VIH}, {L}ibre d'acc{\'e}der {\`a} la connaissance de son {S}tatut ({ATLAS}) programme distributed around 380?000 {HIV} self-testing kits to key populations, including female sex workers, men who have sex with men, and their partners, in {C}{\^o}te d'{I}voire, {M}ali, and {S}enegal. {W}e aimed to estimate the effects of the {ATLAS} programme and national scale-up of {HIV} self-test distribution on {HIV} diagnosis, {HIV} treatment coverage, {HIV} incidence, and {HIV}-related mortality. {M}ethods {W}e adapted a deterministic compartmental model of {HIV} transmission in {C}{\^o}te d'{I}voire, parameterised and fitted to country-specific demographic, behavioural, {HIV} epidemiological, and intervention data in {C}{\^o}te d'{I}voire, {M}ali, and {S}enegal separately during 1980-2020. {W}e simulated dynamics of new {HIV} infections, {HIV} diagnoses, and {HIV}-related deaths within scenarios with and without {HIV} self-test distribution among key populations. {M}odels were separately parameterised and fitted to country-specific sets of epidemiological and intervention outcomes (stratified by sex, risk, age group, and {HIV} status, if available) over time within a {B}ayesian framework. {W}e estimated the effects on the absolute increase in the proportion of people with {HIV} diagnosed at the end of 2021 for the {ATLAS}-only scenario and at the end of 2028 and 2038 for the {HIV} self-testing scale-up scenario. {W}e estimated cumulative numbers of additional {HIV} diagnoses and initiations of antiretroviral therapy and the proportion and absolute numbers of new {HIV} infections and {HIV}-related deaths averted during 2019-21 and 2019-28 for the {ATLAS}-only scenario and during 2019-28 and 2019-38 for the {HIV} self-testing scale-up scenario. {F}indings {O}ur model estimated that {ATLAS} could have led to 700 (90% uncertainty interval [{UI}] 500-900) additional {HIV} diagnoses in {C}{\^o}te d'{I}voire, 500 (300-900) in {M}ali, and 300 (50-700) in {S}enegal during 2019-21, a 0·4 percentage point (90% {UI} 0·3-0·5) increase overall by the end of 2021. {D}uring 2019-28, {ATLAS} was estimated to avert 1900 (90% {UI} 1300-2700) new {HIV} infections and 600 (400-800) {HIV}-related deaths across the three countries, of which 38·6% (90% {UI} 31·8-48·3) of new infections and 70·1% (60·4-77·3) of {HIV}-related deaths would be among key populations. {ATLAS} would avert 1·5% (0·8-3·1) of all {HIV}-related deaths across the three countries during this period. {S}caling up {HIV} self-testing would avert 16·2% (90% {UI} 10·0-23·1) of all new {HIV} infections during 2019-28 in {S}enegal, 5·3% (3·0-8·9) in {M}ali, and 1·6% (1·0-2·4) in {C}{\^o}te d'{I}voire. {HIV} self-testing scale-up among key populations was estimated to increase {HIV} diagnosis by the end of 2028 to 1·3 percentage points (90% {UI} 0·8-1·9) in {C}{\^o}te d'{I}voire, 10·6 percentage points (5·3-16·8) in {S}enegal, and 3·6 percentage points (2·0-6·4) in {M}ali. {I}nterpretation {S}caling up {HIV} self-test distribution among key populations in western {A}frica could attenuate disparities in access to {HIV} testing and reduce infections and deaths among key populations and their partners. {F}unding {U}nitaid, {S}olthis, the {UK} {M}edical {R}esearch {C}ouncil {C}entre for {G}lobal {I}nfectious {D}isease {A}nalysis, the {EU} {E}uropean & {D}eveloping {C}ountries {C}linical {T}rials {P}artnership programme, and the {W}ellcome {T}rust. {T}ranslation {F}or the {F}rench translation of the abstract see {S}upplementary {M}aterials section.},
  keywords = {{COTE} {D}'{IVOIRE} ; {MALI} ; {SENEGAL}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{L}ancet {HIV}},
  volume = {11},
  numero = {8},
  pages = {e531--e541},
  ISSN = {2352-3018},
  year = {2024},
  DOI = {10.1016/s2352-3018(24)00126-7},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010091197},
}