@article{fdi:010091172,
  title = {{V}ariability in flood frequency in sub-{S}aharan {A}frica : the role of large-scale climate modes of variability and their future impacts},
  author = {{E}kolu, {J}. and {D}ieppois, {B}. and {T}ramblay, {Y}ves and {V}illarini, {G}. and {S}later, {L}. {J}. and {M}ah{\'e}, {G}il and {P}aturel, {J}ean-{E}mmanuel and {E}den, {J}. {M}. and {M}oulds, {S}. and {S}idibe, {M}. and {C}amberlin, {P}. and {P}ohl, {B}. and van de {W}iel, {M}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{S}ub-{S}aharan {A}frica ({SSA}) is strongly affected by flood hazards, endangering human lives and economic stability. {H}owever, the role of internal climate modes of variability in driving fluctuations in {SSA} flood occurrence remains poorly documented and understood. {T}o address this gap, we quantify the relative and combined contribution of large-scale climate drivers to seasonal and regional flood occurrence using a new 65-year daily streamflow dataset, sea-surface temperatures derived from observations, and 12 {S}ingle {M}odel {I}nitial-condition {L}arge {E}nsembles ({SMILE}s) from the {C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject {P}hases 5 and 6. {W}e find significant relationships between floods and large-scale climate variability across {SSA}, with climatic drivers accounting for 30-90 % of the variability in floods. {N}otably, western, central, and the summer-rain region of southern {A}frica display stronger teleconnections to large-scale climate variability in comparison to {E}ast {A}frica and the winterrain region of {S}outh {A}frica, where regional circulation patterns and human activities may play a more important role. {I}n southern and eastern {A}frica, floods are mainly influenced by teleconnections with the {P}acific and {I}ndian {O}ceans, while in western and central {A}frica, teleconnections with the {A}tlantic {O}cean and {M}editerranean {S}ea play a larger role. {W}e also find that the number of floods is projected to fluctuate by +/- 10-50 % during the 21st century in response to different sequences of key modes of climate variability. {W}e also note that the relative contributions of large-scale climate variability to future flood risks are generally consistent across all {SMILE}s. {O}ur findings thus provide valuable information for long-term disaster risk reduction and management.},
  keywords = {{F}lood {F}requency ; {I}nternal {C}limate variability ; {S}ub-{S}aharan {A}frica ; {CMIP}5/6 {S}ingle {M}odel {I}nitial {C}ondition {L}arge ; {E}nsembles ({SMILE}s) ; {O}bserved and {F}uture {I}mpacts ; {AFRIQUE} {SUBSAHARIENNE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{J}ournal of {H}ydrology},
  volume = {640},
  numero = {},
  pages = {131679 [18 ]},
  ISSN = {0022-1694},
  year = {2024},
  DOI = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131679},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010091172},
}