@article{fdi:010091127,
  title = {{O}bservation and projection of marine heatwaves in the {C}aribbean {S}ea from {CMIP}6 models},
  author = {{U}sta, {D}. {F}. {B}. and {P}arra, {R}. {R}. {T}. and {R}odríguez-{L}ópez, {L}. and {A}lvarez, {M}. {C}. and {B}ourrel, {L}uc},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{I}n recent decades, climate change has led to ocean warming, causing more frequent extreme events such as marine heatwaves ({MHW}s), which have been understudied in the {C}aribbean {S}ea. {T}his study addresses this gap using 30 years of daily sea surface temperature ({SST}) data, complemented by projections for the 21st century from nineteen {C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject {P}hase 6 ({CMIP}6) models. {I}n the 1983-2012 period, significant trends were observed in the spatially averaged {MHW}s frequency (1.32 annual events per decade and node) and mean duration (1.47 +/- 0.29 days per decade) but not in mean intensity. {I}n addition, {MHW}s show large monthly variations in these metrics, modulated by interannual and seasonal changes. {MHW}s seasonality is different in the three used metrics, being more intense and frequent in warm and rainy months (intensity between 1.01 to 1.11 degrees {C}, duration 6.79 to 7.13 days) and longer lasting in late boreal winter (intensity between 0.82 to 1.00 degrees {C}, duration 7.50 to 8.31 days). {T}he {MHW}s behavior from two extreme months show that these events can occur in both small and large areas in the {C}aribbean. {O}verall, models tend to underestimate the annually averaged {MHW}s frequency and intensity, while they overestimate duration when compared to observations. {MHW}s projections are more extreme under {SSP}585, as they are sensible to the radiational scenario. {H}owever, an increase in {MHW}s intensity and duration (events lasting as much as 154 days by 2100) is expected, driving a decrease in frequency (-37.39 events per decade under {SSP}585 by 2100). {T}hese projections imply that {MHW}s conditions at the beginning of the century will be nearly permanent in the {C}aribbean's future. {N}onetheless, caution is advised in interpreting these projections due to differences between models' simulations and observed data. {W}hile advancements in oceanic models within {CMIP}6 demonstrate progress compared to previous {CMIP} initiatives, challenges persist in accurately simulating extreme events such as marine heatwaves.},
  keywords = {sea surface temperature extremes ; marine heatwaves metrics ; {MHW} intensity ; {MHW} frequency ; {MHW} duration ; {CARAIBE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{R}emote {S}ensing},
  volume = {16},
  numero = {13},
  pages = {2357 [22 p.]},
  year = {2024},
  DOI = {10.3390/rs16132357},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010091127},
}