@article{fdi:010091087,
  title = {{D}eveloping hazard scenarios from monitoring data, historical chronicles, and expert elicitation : a case study of {S}angay volcano, {E}cuador},
  author = {{B}ernard, {B}. and {T}adini, {A}. and {S}amaniego, {P}ablo and {B}evilacqua, {A}. and {V}asconez, {F}. {J}. and {A}ravena, {A}. and {V}itturi, {M}. {D}. {M}. and {H}idalgo, {S}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{S}angay volcano is considered as one of the most active volcanoes worldwide. {N}evertheless, due to its remote location and low-impact eruptions, its eruptive history and hazard scenarios are poorly constrained. {I}n this work, we address this issue by combining an analysis of monitoring data and historical chronicles with expert elicitation. {D}uring the last 400 years, we recognize periods of quiescence, weak, and enhanced eruptive activity, lasting from several months to several years, punctuated by eruptive pulses, lasting from a few hours to a few days. {S}angay volcano has been mainly active since the seventeenth century, with weak eruptive activity as the most common regime, although there have also been several periods of quiescence. {D}uring this period, eruptive pulses with {VEI} 1-3 occurred mainly during enhanced eruptive activity and produced far-reaching impacts due to ash fallout to the west and long-runout lahars to the south-east. {F}our eruptive pulse scenarios are considered in the expert elicitation: strong ash venting ({SAV}, {VEI} 1-2), violent {S}trombolian ({VS}, {VEI} 2-3), sub-{P}linian ({SPL}, {VEI} 3-4), and {P}linian ({PL}, {VEI} 4-5). {SAV} is identified as the most likely scenario, while {PL} has the smallest probability of occurrence. {T}he elicitation results show high uncertainty about the probability of occurrence of {VS} and {SPL}. {L}arge uncertainties are also observed for eruption duration and bulk fallout volume for all eruptive scenarios, while average column height is better characterized, particularly for {SAV} and {VS}. {W}e interpret these results as a consequence of the lack of volcano-physical data, which could be reduced with further field studies. {T}his study shows how historical reconstruction and expert elicitation can help to develop hazard scenarios with uncertainty assessment for poorly known volcanoes, representing a first step towards the elaboration of appropriate hazard maps and subsequent planning.},
  keywords = {{S}angay volcano ; {E}ruptive chronicles ; {E}xpert elicitation ; {H}azard scenario ; {U}ncertainty quantification ; {EQUATEUR}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{B}ulletin of {V}olcanology},
  volume = {86},
  numero = {8},
  pages = {68 [19 ]},
  ISSN = {0258-8900},
  year = {2024},
  DOI = {10.1007/s00445-024-01754-4},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010091087},
}