@article{fdi:010090937,
  title = {{B}ayesian parameter estimation for space and time interacting earthquake rupture model using historical and physics-based simulated earthquake catalogs},
  author = {{C}eferino, {L}. and {G}alvez, {P}. and {A}mpuero, {J}ean-{P}aul and {K}iremidjian, {A}. and {D}eierlein, {G}. and {V}illegas-{L}anza, {J}. {C}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}his article introduces a framework to supplement short historical catalogs with synthetic catalogs and determine large earthquakes' recurrence. {F}or this assessment, we developed a parameter estimation technique for a probabilistic earthquake occurrence model that captures time and space interactions between large mainshocks. {T}he technique is based on a two-step {B}ayesian update that uses a synthetic catalog from physics-based simula-tions for initial parameter estimation and then the historical catalog for further calibration, fully characterizing parameter uncertainty. {T}he article also provides a formulation to com-bine multiple synthetic catalogs according to their likelihood of representing empirical earthquake stress drops and {G}lobal {P}ositioning {S}ystem-inferred interseismic coupling. {W}e applied this technique to analyze large-magnitude earthquakes' recurrence along 650 km of the subduction fault's interface located offshore {L}ima, {P}eru. {W}e built nine 2000 yr long synthetic catalogs using quasi-dynamic earthquake cycle simulations based on the rate-and-state friction law to supplement the 450 yr long historical catalog. {W}hen the synthetic catalogs are combined with the historical catalog without propagating their uncertainty, we found average relative reductions larger than 90% in the recurrence parameters' uncertainty. {W}hen we propagated the physics-based simulations' uncertainty to the posterior, the reductions in uncertainty decreased to 60%-70%. {I}n two {B}ayesian assessments, we then show that using synthetic catalogs results in higher parameter uncertainty reductions than using only the historical catalog (69% vs. 60% and 83% vs. 80%), demonstrating that synthetic catalogs can be effectively combined with historical data, especially in tectonic regions with short historical catalogs. {F}inally, we show the implications of these results for time-dependent seismic hazard.},
  keywords = {},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{B}ulletin of the {S}eismological {S}ociety of {A}merica},
  volume = {111},
  numero = {6},
  pages = {3356--3373},
  ISSN = {0037-1106},
  year = {2021},
  DOI = {10.1785/0120210013},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010090937},
}