@article{fdi:010090756,
  title = {{B}rood indicators are an early warning signal of honey bee colony loss-a simulation-based study},
  author = {{G}roeneveld, {J}. and {O}demer, {R}. and {R}equier, {F}abrice},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{H}oney bees ({A}pis mellifera) are exposed to multiple stressors such as pesticides, lack of forage, and diseases. {I}t is therefore a long-standing aim to develop robust and meaningful indicators of bee vitality to assist beekeepers {W}hile established indicators often focus on expected colony winter mortality based on adult bee abundance and honey reserves at the beginning of the winter, it would be useful to have indicators that allow detection of stress effects earlier in the year to allow for adaptive management. {W}e used the established honey bee simulation model {BEEHAVE} to explore the potential of different indicators such as population size, number of capped brood cells, flight activity, abundance of {V}arroa mites, honey stores and a brood-bee ratio. {W}e implemented two types of stressors in our simulations: 1) parasite pressure, i.e. sub-optimal {V}arroa treatment by the beekeeper (hereafter referred as {B}iotic stress) and 2) temporal forage gaps in spring and autumn (hereafter referred as {E}nvironmental stress). {N}either stressor type could be detected by bee abundance or honey reserves at the end of the first year. {H}owever, all response variables used in this study did reveal early warning signals during the course of the year. {T}he most reliable and useful measures seem to be related to brood and the abundance of {V}arroa mites at the end of the year. {H}owever, while in the model we have full access to time series of variables from stressed and unstressed colonies, knowledge of these variables in the field is challenging. {W}e discuss how our findings can nevertheless be used to develop practical early warning indicators. {A}s a next step in the interactive development of such indicators we suggest empirical studies on the importance of the number of capped brood cells at certain times of the year on bee population vitality.},
  keywords = {},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{P}los {O}ne},
  volume = {19},
  numero = {5},
  pages = {e0302907 [16 p.]},
  ISSN = {1932-6203},
  year = {2024},
  DOI = {10.1371/journal.pone.0302907},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010090756},
}