@article{fdi:010090706,
  title = {{E}mergent constraint on oxygenation of the upper {S}outh {E}astern {P}acific oxygen minimum zone in the twenty-first century},
  author = {{A}lmendra, {I}. and {D}ewitte, {B}oris and {G}ar{\c{c}}on, {V}. and {M}uñoz, {P}. and {P}arada, {C}. and {M}ontes, {I}. and {D}uteil, {O}. and {P}aulmier, {A}ur{\'e}lien and {P}izarro, {O}. and {R}amos, {M}. and {K}oeve, {W}. and {O}schlies, {A}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{A}s a consequence of on-going global warming, the ocean is losing oxygen, which has implications not only in terms of marine resources management and food supply but also in terms of the potentially important feedback on the global carbon cycle and climate. {O}f particular scrutiny are the extended zones of already low levels of oxygen called the oxygen minimum zones ({OMZ}s) embedded in the subsurface waters of the productive {E}astern {B}oundary {U}pwelling {S}ystems ({EBUS}). {T}hese {OMZ}s are currently diversely simulated by state-of-the-art {E}arth {S}ystem {M}odels ({ESM}) hampering a reliable projection of ocean deoxygenation on marine ecosystem services in these regions. {H}ere we focus on the most emblematic {EBUS} {OMZ}s of the planet, that of the {S}outh {E}astern {P}acific ({SEP}), which is under the direct influence of the {E}l {N}i & ntilde;o {S}outhern {O}scillation ({ENSO}), the main climate mode on interannual timescales at global scale. {W}e show that, despite the low consensus among {ESM} long-term projections of oxygen levels, the sensitivity of the depth of the upper margin (oxycline) of the {SEP} {OMZ} to {E}l {N}i & ntilde;o events in an ensemble of {ESM}s can be used as a predictor of its long-term trend, which establishes an emergent constraint for the {SEP} {OMZ}. {B}ecause the oxycline along the coast of {P}eru and {C}hile deepens during {E}l {N}i & ntilde;o events, the upper bound of the {SEP} {OMZ} is thus likely to deepen in the future climate, therefore oxygenating the {SEP} {OMZ}. {T}his has implications not only for understanding the nitrogen and carbon cycles at global scale but also for designing adaptation strategies for regional upper-ocean ecosystem services. {T}he upper bound of the southeast {P}acific oxygen minimum zone deepens during {E}l {N}i & ntilde;o events across an ensemble of {E}arth system models and is therefore projected to likely contract in the future climate, according to an analysis of multiple {E}arth {S}ystem {M}odels.},
  keywords = {{PACIFIQUE} ; {PEROU} ; {CHILI}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{C}ommunications {E}arth and {E}nvironment},
  volume = {5},
  numero = {1},
  pages = {284 [10 ]},
  year = {2024},
  DOI = {10.1038/s43247-024-01427-2},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010090706},
}