@article{fdi:010090656,
  title = {{D}amage to tropical forests caused by cyclones is driven by wind speed but mediated by topographical exposure and tree characteristics},
  author = {{I}banez, {T}homas and {B}auman, {D}avid and {A}iba, {S}. {I}. and {A}rsouze, {T}. and {B}ellingham, {P}. {J}. and {B}irkinshaw, {C}. and {B}irnbaum, {P}. and {C}urran, {T}. {J}. and {D}ewalt, {S}. {J}. and {D}wyer, {J}. and {F}ourcaud, {T}. and {F}ranklin, {J}. and {K}ohyama, {T}. {S}. and {M}enk{\`e}s, {C}hristophe and {M}etcalfe, {D}. {J}. and {M}urphy, {H}. and {M}uscarella, {R}. and {P}lunkett, {G}. {M}. and {S}am, {C}. and {T}anner, {E}. and {T}aylor, {B}. {N}. and {T}hompson, {J}. and {T}icktin, {T}. and {T}uiwawa, {M}. {V}. and {U}riarte, {M}. and {W}ebb, {E}. {L}. and {Z}immerman, {J}. {K}. and {K}eppel, {G}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{E}ach year, an average of 45 tropical cyclones affect coastal areas and potentially impact forests. {T}he proportion of the most intense cyclones has increased over the past four decades and is predicted to continue to do so. {Y}et, it remains uncertain how topographical exposure and tree characteristics can mediate the damage caused by increasing wind speed. {H}ere, we compiled empirical data on the damage caused by 11 cyclones occurring over the past 40 years, from 74 forest plots representing tropical regions worldwide, encompassing field data for 22,176 trees and 815 species. {W}e reconstructed the wind structure of those tropical cyclones to estimate the maximum sustained wind speed ({MSW}) and wind direction at the studied plots. {T}hen, we used a causal inference framework combined with {B}ayesian generalised linear mixed models to understand and quantify the causal effects of {MSW}, topographical exposure to wind ({EXP}), tree size ({DBH}) and species wood density (rho) on the proportion of damaged trees at the community level, and on the probability of snapping or uprooting at the tree level. {T}he probability of snapping or uprooting at the tree level and, hence, the proportion of damaged trees at the community level, increased with increasing {MSW}, and with increasing {EXP} accentuating the damaging effects of cyclones, in particular at higher wind speeds. {H}igher rho decreased the probability of snapping and to a lesser extent of uprooting. {L}arger trees tended to have lower probabilities of snapping but increased probabilities of uprooting. {I}mportantly, the effect of rho decreasing the probabilities of snapping was more marked for smaller than larger trees and was further accentuated at higher {MSW}. {O}ur work emphasises how local topography, tree size and species wood density together mediate cyclone damage to tropical forests, facilitating better predictions of the impacts of such disturbances in an increasingly windier world. {T}he global proportion of the most intense cyclones is increasing and it remains uncertain how damage to tropical forests will change with increasing wind speed. {W}e compiled empirical data on the damage caused by cyclones from forests representing tropical regions worldwide to better understand the effects of wind speed, topographical exposure to wind, and tree characteristics on the proportion of damaged trees and on the probability of snapping or uprooting. {O}ur work emphasises how local topography, tree size and species wood density together mediate cyclone damage to tropical forests, facilitating better predictions of the impacts of such disturbances.image},
  keywords = {hurricane ; mechanical failure ; snapping ; storm ; tree ; tropical cyclones ; tropics ; typhoon ; uprooting ; {ZONE} {TROPICALE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{G}lobal {C}hange {B}iology},
  volume = {30},
  numero = {5},
  pages = {e17317 [16 p.]},
  ISSN = {1354-1013},
  year = {2024},
  DOI = {10.1111/gcb.17317},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010090656},
}