@article{fdi:010090584,
  title = {{M}odeling the spatial distribution of numbers of coral reef fish species and community types in the {W}estern {I}ndian {O}cean faunal province},
  author = {{M}c{C}lanahan, {T}. {R}. and {F}riedlander, {A}. {M}. and {C}habanet, {P}ascale and {B}ruggemann, {J}. {H}. and {W}ickel, {J}. and {A}zali, {M}. {K}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{P}redicting and mapping coral reef diversity at moderate scales can assist spatial planning and prioritizing conservation activities. {W}e made coarse-scale (6.25 km(2)) predictive models for numbers of coral reef fish species and community composition starting with a spatially complete database of 70 environmental variables available for 7039 mapped reef cells in the {W}estern {I}ndian {O}cean. {A}n ensemble model was created from a process of variable elimination and selectivity to make the best predictions irrespective of human influences. {T}his best model was compared to models using preselected variables commonly used to evaluate climate change and human fishing and water quality influences. {M}any variables (similar to 27) contributed to the best number of species and community composition models, but local variables of biomass, depth, and retention connectivity were dominant predictors. {T}he key human-influenced variables included fish biomass and distance to human populations, with weaker associations with sediments and nutrients. {C}limate-influenced variables were generally weaker and included median sea surface temperature ({SST}) with contributions in declining order from {SST} kurtosis, bimodality, excess summer heat, {SST} skewness, {SST} rate of rise, and coral cover. {C}ommunity composition variability was best explained by 2 dominant community richness axes of damselfishes-angelfishes and butterflyfishes-parrotfishes. {N}umbers of damselfish-angelfish species were ecologically separated by depth, and damselfishes declined with increasing depth, median temperature, cumulative excess heat, rate of temperature rise, and chronic temperature stresses. {S}pecies of butterflyfish-parrotfish separated by median temperature, and butterflyfish numbers declined with increasing temperature, chronic and acute temperature variability, and the rate of temperature rise. {S}everal fish diversity hotspots were found in the {E}ast {A}frican {C}oastal {C}urrent {E}coregion centered in {T}anzania, followed by {M}ayotte, southern {K}enya, and northern {M}ozambique. {I}f biomass can be maintained, the broad distributions of species combined with compensatory community responses should maintain high diversity and ecological resilience to climate change and other human stressors.},
  keywords = {{A}frica ; {B}iodiversity ; {B}ony fish ; {E}nvironmental drivers ; {S}pecies diversity ; {S}patial modeling ; {OCEN} {INDIEN}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{M}arine {E}cology {P}rogress {S}eries},
  volume = {730},
  numero = {},
  pages = {59--78},
  ISSN = {0171-8630},
  year = {2024},
  DOI = {10.3354/meps14538},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010090584},
}