@article{fdi:010090516,
  title = {{D}oes a convection-permitting regional climate model bring new perspectives on the projection of {M}editerranean floods ?},
  author = {{P}oncet, {N}. and {L}ucas-{P}icher, {P}. and {T}ramblay, {Y}ves and {T}hirel, {G}. and {V}ergara, {H}. and {G}ourley, {J}. and {A}lias, {A}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{F}loods are the primary natural hazard in the {F}rench {M}editerranean area, causing damages and fatalities every year. {T}hese floods are triggered by heavy precipitation events ({HPE}s) characterized by limited temporal and spatial extents. {A} new generation of regional climate models at the kilometer scale have been developed, allowing an explicit representation of deep convection and improved simulations of local-scale phenomena such as {HPE}s. {C}onvection-permitting regional climate models ({CPM}s) have been scarcely used in hydrological impact studies, and future projections of {M}editerranean floods remain uncertain with regional climate models ({RCM}s). {I}n this paper, we use the {CNRM}-{AROME} {CPM} (2.5 km) and its driving {CNRM}-{ALADIN} {RCM} (12 km) at the hourly timescale to simulate floods over the {G}ardon d'{A}nduze catchment located in the {F}rench {M}editerranean region. {C}limate simulations are bias-corrected with the {CDF}-t method. {T}wo hydrological models, a lumped and conceptual model ({GR}5{H}) and a process-based distributed model ({CREST}), forced with historical and future climate simulations from the {CPM} and from the {RCM}, have been used. {T}he {CPM} model confirms its ability to better reproduce extreme hourly rainfall compared to the {RCM}. {T}his added value is propagated on flood simulation with a better reproduction of flood peaks. {F}uture projections are consistent between the hydrological models but differ between the two climate models. {U}sing the {CNRM}-{ALADIN} {RCM}, the magnitude of all floods is projected to increase. {W}ith the {CNRM}-{AROME} {CPM}, a threshold effect is found: the magnitude of the largest floods is expected to intensify, while the magnitude of the less severe floods is expected to decrease. {I}n addition, different flood event characteristics indicate that floods are expected to become flashier in a warmer climate, with shorter lag time between rainfall and runoff peak and a smaller contribution of base flow, regardless of the model. {T}his study is a first step for impact studies driven by {CPM}s over the {M}editerranean.},
  keywords = {{FRANCE} ; {ZONE} {MEDITERRANEENNE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{N}atural {H}azards and {E}arth {S}ystem {S}ciences},
  volume = {24},
  numero = {4},
  pages = {1163--1183},
  ISSN = {1561-8633},
  year = {2024},
  DOI = {10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010090516},
}