@article{fdi:010090343,
  title = {{S}torylines of {S}ahel precipitation change : roles of the {N}orth {A}tlantic and {E}uro-{M}editerranean temperature},
  author = {{M}onerie, {P}. {A}. and {B}iasutti, {M}. and {M}ignot, {J}uliette and {M}ohino, {E}. and {P}ohl, {B}. and {Z}appa, {G}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{F}uture changes in {S}ahel precipitation are uncertain because of large differences among projections from various models. {I}n order to explore this uncertainty, we use a storyline approach which seeks to identify alternative plausible evolutions of {S}ahel precipitation and their driving factors. {B}y analyzing projections from the {CMIP}6 climate models, we show that changes in {N}orth {A}tlantic and in {E}uro-{M}editerranean temperatures explain up to 60% of the central {S}ahel precipitation change uncertainty. {W}e then construct several storylines of {S}ahel precipitation change based on future plausible changes in {N}orth {A}tlantic and {E}uro-{M}editerranean temperatures. {I}n one storyline, an amplified warming of both the {N}orth {A}tlantic and the {E}uro-{M}editerranean areas promotes a northward shift of the {W}est {A}frican monsoon, increasing precipitation over the central {S}ahel, while, in the opposite storyline, a moderate warming in both regions is associated with a small change in precipitation over the central {S}ahel and a decrease in precipitation over the western {S}ahel, at the end of the 21st century. {T}hese results indicate that {S}ahel precipitation uncertainty will not be substantially reduced unless the uncertainty in the future warming of the {N}orth {A}tlantic and the {E}uro-{M}editerranean areas is constrained. {P}lain {L}anguage {S}ummary {V}ariations in the strength of the {W}est {A}frican {M}onsoon ({WAM}) circulation have societal impacts on around 80 million people from {S}enegal to {C}had. {H}owever, future projections of the {WAM} precipitation are uncertain for the end of the 21st century because of strong differences from one climate model to another. {W}e show here that sources of uncertainty in {S}ahel precipitation depend on changes in {N}orth {A}tlantic and {E}uro-{M}editerranean temperature, relative to changes in global mean surface air temperature. {W}e show that differences in how climate models simulate the future warming over the {N}orth {A}tlantic and {E}uro-{M}editerranean area explain a large proportion of the uncertainty in precipitation change over the central {S}ahel. {W}e provide a method that could be helpful at selecting models for impact studies, based on their sensitivity to climate change over the {N}orth {A}tlantic ocean and {M}editerranean {S}ea.},
  keywords = {{SAHEL} ; {AFRIQUE} {DE} {L}'{OUEST} ; {ATLANTIQUE} ; {MEDITERRANEE} ; {EUROPE} ; {ATLANTIQUE} {NORD}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{J}ournal of {G}eophysical {R}esearch : {A}tmospheres},
  volume = {128},
  numero = {16},
  pages = {e2023{JD}038712 [17 p.]},
  ISSN = {2169-897{X}},
  year = {2023},
  DOI = {10.1029/2023jd038712},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010090343},
}