@article{fdi:010090255,
  title = {{A}pplying ensemble ecosystem model projections to future-proof marine conservation planning in the {N}orthwest {A}tlantic {O}cean},
  author = {{B}ryndum-{B}uchholz, {A}. and {B}lanchard, {J}. {L}. and {C}oll, {M}arta and {D}u {P}ontavice, {H}. and {E}verett, {J}. {D}. and {G}uiet, {J}. and {H}eneghan, {R}. {F}. and {M}aury, {O}livier and {N}ovaglio, {C}. and {P}alacios-{A}brantes, {J}. and {P}etrik, {C}. {M}. and {T}ittensor, {D}. {P}. and {L}otze, {H}. {K}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{C}limate change is altering marine ecosystems across the globe and is projected to do so for centuries to come. {M}arine conservation agencies can use short- and long-term projections of species-specific or ecosystem-level climate responses to inform marine conservation planning. {Y}et, integration of climate change adaptation, mitigation, and resilience into marine conservation planning is limited. {W}e analysed future trajectories of climate change impacts on total consumer biomass and six key physical and biogeochemical drivers across the {N}orthwest {A}tlantic {O}cean to evaluate the consequences for {M}arine {P}rotected {A}reas ({MPA}s) and {O}ther {E}ffective area-based {C}onservation {M}easures ({OECM}s) in {A}tlantic {C}anada. {W}e identified climate change hotspots and refugia, where the environmental drivers are projected to change most or remain close to their current state, respectively, by mid- and end-century. {W}e used standardized outputs from the {F}isheries and {M}arine {E}cosystem {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject and the 6th {C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject. {O}ur analysis revealed that, currently, no existing marine conservation areas in {A}tlantic {C}anada overlap with identified climate refugia. {M}ost (75%) established {MPA}s and more than one-third (39%) of the established {OECM}s lie within cumulative climate hotspots. {O}ur results provide important long-term context for adaptation and future-proofing spatial marine conservation planning in {C}anada and the {N}orthwest {A}tlantic region.},
  keywords = {climate change impacts ; ensemble modelling ; marine biomass projections ; {MPA}s ; {OECM}s ; {A}tlantic {C}anada ; {ATLANTIQUE} ; {CANADA}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{F}acets},
  volume = {8},
  numero = {},
  pages = {0024 [16 ]},
  ISSN = {2371-1671},
  year = {2023},
  DOI = {10.1139/facets-2023-0024},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010090255},
}