@article{fdi:010089600,
  title = {{I}mpact-based flood forecasting in the {G}reater {H}orn of {A}frica},
  author = {{A}lfieri, {L}. and {L}ibertino, {A}. and {C}ampo, {L}. and {D}ottori, {F}. and {G}abellani, {S}. and {G}hizzoni, {T}. and {M}asoero, {A}. and {R}ossi, {L}. and {R}udari, {R}. and {T}esta, {N}. and {T}rasforini, {E}. and {A}mdihun, {A}. and {O}uma, {J}. and {R}ossi, {L}. and {T}ramblay, {Y}ves and {W}u, {H}. and {M}assabò, {M}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{E}very year {A}frica is hit by extreme floods which, combined with high levels of vulnerability and increasing population exposure, often result in humanitarian crises and population displacement. {I}mpact-based forecasting and early warning for natural hazards is recognized as a step forward in disaster risk reduction, thanks to its focus on people, livelihoods, and assets at risk. {Y}et, the majority of the {A}frican population is not covered by any sort of early warning system. {T}his article describes the setup and the methodological approach of {F}lood-{PROOFS} {E}ast {A}frica, an impact-based riverine flood forecasting and early warning system for the {G}reater {H}orn of {A}frica ({GHA}), with a forecast range of 5 d. {T}he system is based on a modeling cascade relying on distributed hydrological simulations forced by ensemble weather forecasts, link to inundation maps for specific return period, and application of a risk assessment framework to estimate population and assets exposed to upcoming floods. {T}he system is operational and supports the {A}frican {U}nion {C}ommission and the {D}isaster {O}peration {C}enter of the {I}ntergovernmental {A}uthority on {D}evelopment ({IGAD}) in the daily monitoring and early warning from hydro-meteorological disasters in eastern {A}frica. {R}esults show a first evaluation of the hydrological reanalysis at 78 river gauging stations and a semi-quantitative assessment of the impact forecasts for the catastrophic floods in {S}udan and in the {N}ile {R}iver basin in summer 2020. {M}ore extensive quantitative evaluation of the system performance is envisaged to provide its users with information on the model reliability in forecasting extreme events and their impacts.},
  keywords = {{ETHIOPIE} ; {ERYTREE} ; {DJIBOUTI} ; {SOUDAN} ; {SOMALIA}, {OUGANDA} ; {BURUNDI} ; {RWANDA} ; {KENYA} ; {TANZANIE} ; {SOUDAN} {DU} {SUD}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{N}atural {H}azards and {E}arth {S}ystem {S}ciences},
  volume = {24},
  numero = {1},
  pages = {199--224},
  ISSN = {1561-8633},
  year = {2024},
  DOI = {10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010089600},
}