@article{fdi:010089475,
  title = {{B}eyond the {F}arm to {F}ork strategy : methodology for designing a {E}uropean agro-ecological future},
  author = {{B}illen, {G}. and {A}guilera, {E}. and {E}inarsson, {R}. and {G}arnier, {J}. and {G}ingrich, {S}. and {G}rizzetti, {B}. and {L}assaletta, {L}. and {L}e {N}oe, {J}ulia and {S}anz-{C}obena, {A}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he publication of the {E}uropean {C}ommission's {F}arm to {F}ork {S}trategy has sparked a heated debate between those who advocate the intensification of agriculture in the name of food security and those who recommend its deintensification for environmental reasons. {T}he design of quantified scenarios is a key approach to objectively evaluate the arguments of the two sides. {T}o this end, we used the accounting methodology {GRAFS} ({G}eneralized {R}epresentation of {A}gri-{F}ood {S}ystems) to describe the agri-food system of {E}urope divided into 127 geographical units of similar agricultural area, in terms of nitrogen ({N}) fluxes across cropland, grassland, livestock, and human consumption. {T}his analysis reveals, in current {E}uropean agriculture, a high level of territorial specialization, a strong dependence on long distance trade, and environmental {N} losses amounting to about 14 {T}g{N}/yr, i.e. nearly 70 % of the annual {N} input (including {N} synthetic fertilizers, symbiotic {N} fixation, oxidized {N} deposition and import of food and feed). {B}ased on the analysis of the yield-fertilization relationship of cropping systems at the scale of their full rotation cycle, and on a simplified model of livestock ingestion, excretion and production, we advanced the {GRAFS} methodology for prospective scenario design. {T}hree scenarios for the {E}uropean agri-foodsystem were explored for 2050: a business-as-usual ({BAU}) scenario, a scenario based on the measures considered by the {EU} {F}arm to {F}ork {S}trategy ({F}2{F}) , a fully agro-ecological scenario ({AE}). {T}he results show that the {F}2{F} scenario reduces the dependence of {E}urope on imports of synthetic fertilizers , feed resources by 40 % as well as the environmental {N} losses by 30 %, but not to the level of its claimed ambitions as {N} lost to the environment still amounts to about 10 {T}g{N}/yr, i.e. 67 % of {N} inputs. {O}f the three scenarios studied, only in the {AE} scenario, involving the relocation of feed production, the generalization of organic crop rotations with {N} fixing legume crops, and a shift of agricultural production and food consumption toward less animal-based products, would {E}urope be able to dispense with {N} imports, still being able to export some cereals, meat, and milk products to the rest of the world, while halving today's reactive {N} emissions to the environment.},
  keywords = {{E}uropean {A}gri-food system ; {S}cenario design ; {F}arm to {F}ork {S}trategy ; {A}gro-ecological scenario ; {C}rop rotations ; {C}rop-livestock reconnection ; {H}alving {N} waste ; {EUROPE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{S}cience of the {T}otal {E}nvironment},
  volume = {908},
  numero = {},
  pages = {168160 [17 ]},
  ISSN = {0048-9697},
  year = {2024},
  DOI = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168160},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010089475},
}