@article{fdi:010089421,
  title = {{L}ess negative impacts of climate change on crop yields in {W}est {A}frica in the new {CMIP}6 climate simulations ensemble},
  author = {{S}ultan, {B}enjamin and {I}lmi-{A}hmed, {A}icha and {F}aye, {B}. and {T}ramblay, {Y}ves},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{F}ood insecurity is among one of the greatest risks posed by climate change in {A}frica, where 90 to 95% of {A}frican food production is rainfed and a large proportion of the population already faces chronic hunger and malnutrition. {A}lthough, several studies have found robust evidence of future crop yield losses under climate change scenarios, there is wide variation among crops and regions as well as large modeling uncertainties. {A} large part of this uncertainty stems from climate projections, as climate models may differ in simulating future changes in precipitation and temperature, which could lead to different future crop production scenarios. {T}his work examines the impacts of climate change on crop yields of maize, millet and sorghum in {W}est {A}frica using climate change projections from the {C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject 5th {P}hase ({CMIP}5) and from the new generation of climate models from the {C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject 6th {P}hase ({CMIP}6). {W}e use the {SIMPLACE} crop modeling framework to simulate historical and future crop yields, and bootstrap techniques to evaluate projected changes in crop productivity between the {CMIP}5 and {CMIP}6 ensembles. {U}sing the new generation of climate models {CMIP}6, we find that the negative crop yield projections shown by {CMIP}5 simulations are largely reduced, with even large increases in crop yields when the effect of atmospheric {CO}2 concentration is considered in the crop model. {T}hese differences in crop yield impacts between the {CMIP}5 and {CMIP}6 simulations are mainly due to different climate projections of temperature and precipitation in {W}est {A}frica; {CMIP}6 projections being significantly wetter and cooler by mid-century and to a lesser extent by the end of the century. {S}uch results highlight the large uncertainties that remain in assessing the impacts of climate change in the region and the consequent difficulty for end-users to anticipate adaptation strategies.},
  keywords = {{AFRIQUE} {DE} {L}'{OUEST}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{P}los {C}limate},
  volume = {2},
  numero = {12},
  pages = {e0000263 [22 ]},
  ISSN = {2767-3200},
  year = {2023},
  DOI = {10.1371/journal.pclm.0000263},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010089421},
}