Ochidaa N. auteur aut IRD Dupont-Rouzeyrolb M. auteur aut IRD Moury P. H. auteur aut IRD Demaneuff T. auteur aut IRD Gourinat A. C. auteur aut IRD Mabon S. auteur aut IRD Jouanb M. auteur aut IRD Cauchemez S. auteur aut IRD Mangeas Morgan auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf reformatted digital access Objectives: New Caledonia, a former zero-COVID country, was confronted with a SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant outbreak in September 2021. We evaluate the relative contribution of vaccination, lockdown, and timing of interventions on healthcare burden.Methods: We developed an age-stratified mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination calibrated for New Caledonia and evaluated three alternative scenarios.Results: High virus transmission early on was estimated, with R 0 equal to 6.6 (95% confidence interval [6.4-6.7]). Lockdown reduced R 0 by 73% (95% confidence interval [70-76%]). Easing the lockdown increased transmission (39% reduction of the initial R 0 ); but we did not observe an epidemic rebound. This contrasts with the rebound in hospital admissions ( + 116% total hospital admissions) that would have been expected in the absence of an inten-sified vaccination campaign (76,220 people or 34% of the eligible population were first-dose vaccinated during 1 month of lockdown). A 15-day earlier lockdown would have led to a significant reduction in the magnitude of the epidemic (-53% total hospital admissions). Conclusion: The success of the response against the Delta variant epidemic in New Caledonia was due to an effective lockdown that provided additional time for people to vaccinate. Earlier lockdown would have greatly mitigated the magnitude of the epidemic. specialized COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Zero-COVID Non-pharmaceutical interventions Vaccine Modelling NOUVELLE CALEDONIE 050 052 020 8 64-70 2023 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010088852 10.1016/j.ijregi.2023.06.004 [F B010088852] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010088852 https://horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exl-doc/pleins_textes/2024-02/010088852.pdf IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2024-02-07 2026-06-12 fdi:010088852 fre