@article{fdi:010088852,
  title = {{E}valuating the strategies to control {SARS}-{C}o{V}-2 {D}elta variant spread in {N}ew {C}aledonia, a zero-{COVID} country until {S}eptember 2021},
  author = {{O}chidaa, {N}. and {D}upont-{R}ouzeyrolb, {M}. and {M}oury, {P}. {H}. and {D}emaneuff, {T}. and {G}ourinat, {A}. {C}. and {M}abon, {S}. and {J}ouanb, {M}. and {C}auchemez, {S}. and {M}angeas, {M}organ},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{O}bjectives: {N}ew {C}aledonia, a former zero-{COVID} country, was confronted with a {SARS}-{C}o{V}-2 {D}elta variant outbreak in {S}eptember 2021. {W}e evaluate the relative contribution of vaccination, lockdown, and timing of interventions on healthcare burden.{M}ethods: {W}e developed an age-stratified mathematical model of {SARS}-{C}o{V}-2 transmission and vaccination calibrated for {N}ew {C}aledonia and evaluated three alternative scenarios.{R}esults: {H}igh virus transmission early on was estimated, with {R} 0 equal to 6.6 (95% confidence interval [6.4-6.7]). {L}ockdown reduced {R} 0 by 73% (95% confidence interval [70-76%]). {E}asing the lockdown increased transmission (39% reduction of the initial {R} 0 ); but we did not observe an epidemic rebound. {T}his contrasts with the rebound in hospital admissions ( + 116% total hospital admissions) that would have been expected in the absence of an inten-sified vaccination campaign (76,220 people or 34% of the eligible population were first-dose vaccinated during 1 month of lockdown). {A} 15-day earlier lockdown would have led to a significant reduction in the magnitude of the epidemic (-53% total hospital admissions). {C}onclusion: {T}he success of the response against the {D}elta variant epidemic in {N}ew {C}aledonia was due to an effective lockdown that provided additional time for people to vaccinate. {E}arlier lockdown would have greatly mitigated the magnitude of the epidemic.},
  keywords = {{COVID}-19 ; {SARS}-{C}o{V}-2 ; {Z}ero-{COVID} ; {N}on-pharmaceutical interventions ; {V}accine ; {M}odelling ; {NOUVELLE} {CALEDONIE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{IJID} {R}egions},
  volume = {8},
  numero = {},
  pages = {64--70},
  year = {2023},
  DOI = {10.1016/j.ijregi.2023.06.004},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010088852},
}